Iraq President's Fall-back Position is Succession of No2 Son: Report

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, April 21, 2002

Iraq President's Fall-back Position is Succession of No2 Son: Report

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American warplanes bomb Baghdad. Ground forces are poised at the Kuwait border. Suddenly Saddam Hussein throws a last despairing spanner into the military works, announcing that he is stepping down to be succeeded by his younger son, Qusay.

The Saddam retirement scenario is one of several potentially disruptive Iraqi ploys that US President George W Bush will try to deflect this week as he struggles to refocus attention on Iraq after the distractions of Colin Powell's Middle East peace mission.

American intelligence agencies have warned Bush that some of Iraq's Arab neighbours would rather see Saddam hand power to his son than endure the regional political turmoil likely to follow any American military action.

If Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia visits Bush this week as planned, the president will warn him that a "Hussein family reshuffle" would not constitute the regime change that Washington has demanded, according to American officials.

The prospect of Qusay, 36, succeeding his 64-year-old father has been debated inside and outside Iraq ever since Saddam's hated elder son Uday was seriously hurt in an assassination attempt in 1996.

Iraqi exiles believe Saddam has lost patience with Uday's notorious temper and murderous rampages, some against members of his family. Uday, 38, controls his own militia, the Fedayeen Saddam, and much of the official media.

But he has been effectively sidelined as Qusay has risen steadily in the ruling Baath party and the elite Republican Guard. Recent video recordings of Saddam show Qusay sitting beside him. Earlier this year Baghdad television featured Qusay pledging loyalty to Iraq, which he said was "immune to the threats of the evil aggressors and the croaks of their humiliated ravens".

Much of the Gulf is run on hereditary principles and some regimes would hail a father-son handover as a breakthrough nullifying the case for American intervention. "The Arab world would be much more inclined to declare success (if Saddam handed over to his son)," said Charles Duelfer, a former United Nations weapons inspector.

Yet American officials believe that the threat from Iraqi weapons of mass destruction will be just as potent if Qusay takes over. "One of the reasons Qusay is seen as a likely successor is because he's so much like dad," said Judith Yaphe, a research fellow at the Pentagon-run National Defense University.

Sources believe Washington is ready to offer Saddam and family members a comparatively dignified way out. This might include safe passage to an Arab country that would shelter them, but only if the entire Hussein regime is dismantled, allowing transition to a democratic system.

Last week Bush continued to talk tough without indicating how he would carry out his threats. Addressing cadets at the Virginia Military Institute, he referred again to "a small number of outlaw regimes developing chemical and biological and nuclear weapons. The world must confront them".

Administration officials insist that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has not diminished the drive to topple Saddam - last week one European diplomat was shown a large pile of documents supposedly containing military plans. Yet some officials fear the White House is spreading itself too thin in confronting Iraq while the Afghan war continues and the Middle East crisis unfolds.

"They need to work on an agenda," said Yaphe. "What do you want Iraq after Saddam to look like and how much military and financial capital are you willing to spend? You can't go in on Tuesday, take out Saddam and his family on Wednesday, establish the opposition on Thursday and leave on Friday. They will all be killed on Saturday."

UN talks are due to resume shortly on inspections of Iraqi weapons programmes, but Pentagon hawks are concerned that Saddam may prolong the inspection issue for months without giving away any of his secrets.

Source: Agencies

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