Two Controversial Issues Face up to China's Population Policy

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, June 17, 2002

Two Controversial Issues Face up to China's Population Policy

China is facing two controversial issues regarding birth control problem: one is that should China continue to reduce fertility rate in a large degree. The other is that is it possible for China to cut the rate remarkably.

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China is facing two controversial issues regarding birth control problem: One is that should China continue to reduce fertility rate in a large degree. The other, is it possible for China to cut the rate remarkably.

The two problems were raised by Li Xiaoping, associate research fellow in demography study with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Li said that for a country with an enormous population, the primary target is to try to reduce the total fertility rate under its self-rejuvenation level. China has achieved the goal after several years' endeavor, but it has to wait for quite some time to achieve the second goal, that is to speed up the zero growth of population.

He put forward that the ideal population target should be fixed in two steps in the process of accomplishing the zero growth: First, try to reduce population to 800 million 100 years later; The second step, try to decrease the population to 300 million 200 years later.

According to Li's calculation, if China wants to achieve the first step's goal, total fertility rate must be further lowered and should be kept under 0.16% for a long time.

If each couple only has one child, the total fertility rate can be reduced to 0.16 per cent, and 30 or 40 years later, the rate will be cut to 0.10%.

Supposing the rate maintained, Chinese population would be reduced to 400 million within 100 years from now on.

He further added that as a matter of fact, potentially, if governments at various levels can take the population reduction as first priority, China is not impossible to control the population under 500 million 100 years later.

without comparison, one might not be able to see the true difference, said Li.

Whenever he thinks about the US, Canada and Australia's enormous gap with China in population, resources and environment, he always feels depressed, according to the population expert.

He said that China's population is 1 billion more than the United States', in terms of birth rate, China's population in one year is equal to a whole Australia's, the single figures tell people that how important it is to reduce fertility rate.

If there is no absolute population decrease, it would always be a daydream for China to catch up with developed countries in living conditions and the environment quality.

By PD Online Staff Li Yan

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