Interview: China, Vibrant Revival Story for Asian Trade

Home>>Business

Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, July 16, 2002

Interview: China, Vibrant Revival Story for Asian Trade

DISCUSSION

CHINESE

SEND TO FRIEND

"China is already a vibrant revival story for Asian intra-regional trade, and its import market for the region, though relatively modest at present, will grow significantly over time," said Yiping Huang, senior economist for Citigroup member Salomon Smith Barney (SSB), one of the world's leading multinational investment banking services.

A research report released by SSB estimated China's import market by 2005 will rise from 357 billion US dollars to 450 billion US dollars, and Asian sales to China will grow another 55 percent to 85 percent in the next four years.

Observers here noted that Asian exports in the past two years followed the global cycle down but began to recover ahead of the bottoming of global import demand, implying that intra-regional trade had returned as an important driver of growth. They also noticed that in driving the region's trade turnaround, China's owncontribution via imports appeared to have been even more vibrant.

Statistics by Citigroup's researchers also showed that Chinese import demand in May this year rose by 30 percent, growing much faster than Asian intra-regional trade, which represented an increase of nearly 20 percent.

Huang said China plus Hong Kong is now already a more importantdestination for Asian exports than Japan, and nearly as important as the United States. "It is also interesting to note that a pickup in Asian exports going to China from last year appears to mirror a drop-off in Japan's share, suggesting that further shifting of Japanese production to the Chinese mainland in recent months may be diverting Asian exports from Japan into China," he added.

As for future sources of the Chinese import growth, recent studies by analysts from China's mainland indicated that with China's moving further toward free trade, it would likely to import more land and capital intensive products while exporting more labor intensive products.

World Bank also made predictions not long ago on likely changesin China's import structure by commodity groups following WTO accession, showing that the fastest growing import groups include beverages and tobacco, other food, textiles, apparel, dairy, autos,and petrochemical products.

However, Huang felt that China-Asia trade growing strongly is asign that the tech supply chain remains alive and well. "The upshot is that while we had expected China to eventually become a major player in global technology, its ascendancy within the region may be taking place at a faster pace than what we had expected," the economist said.

Questions?Comments? Click here

China Would Further Open Financial Market: Jiang

Citigroup Launches New Investment Product for HK Investors

How to View Major Problems in China's Income Distribution System ( 35 Messages)

Gang of 66 Criminals Get Heavy Sentences ( 3 Messages)

Sino-Russian Military Exercise not Targeting Third Country ( 58 Messages)

Shanghai Plans Asia's Biggest Shopping Center ( 124 Messages)

Taiwan to Lift Half-century Ban on Direct Investment in Mainland ( 2 Messages)

China's Economy Grew 7.8 Percent in First Half Year ( 3 Messages)