Roundup: Flood fight helps Schroeder in polls

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, August 25, 2002

Roundup: Flood fight helps Schroeder in polls

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Just four weeks ahead of the Sept. 22 general elections, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrat Party (SPD) is almost tied with the main opposition parties in recent opinion polls, boosting its chances of staying in power for another four years.

In a "politics-barometer" survey conducted on Friday by the ZDFTV station, the chancellor's party gained the support of 38 percent of the 1,292 voters questioned, up 2 percentage points from last week, while the conservative opposition led by its chancellor-candidate Edmund Stoiber scored 39 percent, a drop of 2percent.

In the survey, people were asked "which party would you choose if the general elections was held on the coming Sunday."

According to the poll, the incumbent governing coalition of the SPD and the Greens is only 3 percent behind the potential governing coalition of the Christian Democratic Union, the Christian Social Union and the Free Democratic Party (FDP).

Experts said it all depends on whether the Social Democrats can maintain the upward trend until election day.

Plagued by high unemployment around 10 percent and sluggish economic growth, Schroeder's SPD has trailed Stoiber's three partyalliance by a margin of some 5 percent for most of the year.

Pollsters attributed the Social Democrats' latest upturn of the Government's strong response to the catastrophic floods that have devastated northern and eastern Germany in the last 12 days.

While the government was making immediate decisions on relief efforts and taking swift measures, the opposition was hesitating about how to counter the damage, many people said. Schroeder himself was praised by the German public for leading efforts to help victims and areas affected by the flood.

Measures planned by the government to repair the flood damage were also backed by the majority of the public. In the poll, nearly 59 percent supported the proposal to postpone the planned tax cuts for one year to pay for the flood relief. Even 51 percent of opposition supporters said they agreed with the government on this point.

The worst-for-a-century flood has brought German residents much closer to their government, the ZDF survey noted.

The Electoral Research Group said there was a change in the political atmosphere. A survey, in which people were asked for their evaluations of the individual parties contesting the election, showed the SPD support jumped to 40 percent while the opposition fell 4 percent, getting only 39 percent of the support.

Asked which candidate would make the better chancellor, 55 percent of those questioned in the ZDF poll said they favored Schroeder while only 36 percent preferred Stoiber.

The trend could also be seen in other leading polls. In an Emnid poll, Schroeder's SPD gained two points to 36 percent while the conservatives fell one point to 39 percent. In a survey made by the Forsa, the SPD jumped 3 percent to 38 percent while the opposition remained at 40 percent.

Reactions to the changes in the opinion polls differed. SPD Secretary-General Franz Muenteferring said, "We are close to each other. The decision is open." Former chairman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Wolfgang Schaeuble said the SPD success was "foreseeable" due to the flood. Its leader, Angela Merkel, said she was still "optimistic" about the Union, arguing the election will be decided on the day of the election and not by polls.

The new poll data makes the television duel between Schroeder and Stoiber on the coming Sunday evening more exciting. It's the first time in Germany that two chancellor candidates will meet directly on television to compare their policies and personalities. The SPD hopes that the American-style duel will further emphasizes Schroeder's image advantages over his conservative challenger.

Schroeder, widely considered as more telegenic than the somewhat wooden Stoiber, must be considered the favorite in the debate, analysts said.

The second television duel will be held on Sept. 8, two weeks ahead of the election.

The chancellor is also making strenuous efforts in other areas to boost his party's prospects before Germans go to the polls.

He has repeatedly voiced his opposition to any form of participation in possible military strikes against Iraq. Analysts said his stance was linked to the fact that most Germans -- surveys show more than 80 percent -- oppose an attack on Iraq.

In fighting high unemployment, the biggest headache of the incumbent government, a special panel has unveiled an ambitious plan aimed at halving Germany's 4 million jobless roll within three years.

The Hartz Commission recommended an overhaul of the government job-placement bureaucracy, stricter rules for job seekers and 20 billion euros (19.6 billion US dollars) in grants for companies willing to hire more staff.

The chancellor said the program would be enacted without delay so that it could begin operating even before the Sept. 22 election.

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