News Analysis: A Hard-won Parliamentary Victory for Germany's Red-Green Coalition

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, September 23, 2002

News Analysis: A Hard-won Parliamentary Victory for Germany's Red-Green Coalition

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Germany's coalition government between Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green party has finally come out as a victor in Sunday's parliamentary elections, according to the initial results of official vote counting announced early Monday morning.

Johann Hahlen, leader of the Federal Election Commission, announced that SPD and the conservative Union bloc (CDU/CSU) both won 38.5 percent of votes, while the Green party garnered 8.6 percent of votes and Free Democrats (FDP) 7.4 percent.

With so-called overhang seats included, SPD won 251 seats in the next Bundestag (lower chamber of parliament), followed by CDU/CSU (248), the Green party (55) and FDP (47). The red-green majority as against the Union bloc and FDP has diminished from 57 seats in the last parliament to 11 at present.

However, since the red-green coalition trailed behind the Unionbloc and FDP most of the time in the election campaign, the victory is still remarkable, reflecting the weaknesses and merits of both the ruling coalition and opposition parties.

First, although the ruling coalition had been burdened by the economic woes, alternative solutions offered by the opposition parties apparently lack enough appeal. While ruling parties especially SPD were hit by the government's failure to bring down high unemployment, stir stagnant economic growth and decrease record number of bankruptcies, the opposition parties have not come up with convincing economic recovery plans. This year's voterturnout rate of 79.1, the lowest in modern Germany, is just an indication of disappointment with both major parties.

Second, ruling parties have benefited from combating the disastrous flood in eastern Germany and taking a hard line againstWashington on the Iraqi issue, while the opposition parties seemedto react as if they followed cues from the government.

Although Washington was angered by Berlin's position on Iraq and, in the closing days of the election campaign, launched an unusual verbal attack on German Justice Minister Herta Daeubler-Gmelin for her comparing President George W. Bush with Adolf Hitler, the overall standing of the red-green coalition among German voters seemed unhurt by the controversies.

Thirdly, the Green party in the ruling coalition made gains because its traditional agenda of environment protection and peacehas been more favored during the time of high floods and war drum-beating. In the meantime, other two small parties, FDP and the Socialists (PDS), were either hurt by internal disputes or by votesucking effects of the government's performance on the flood and Iraqi issues.

Fourth, the leaders of the red-green coalition ,namely Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer,are more charismatic than their opponents, as they stand always ontop of German politicians popularity list.

However, although the red-green coalition has won the re-election, it has huge tasks both domestically and abroad. On economic front, German media has noted that bitter structural reform should be carried out in order to low high unemployment andstimulate economy.

But deep reforms such as those in the labor market, even thoughendorsed by Schroeder, are strongly opposed by trade unions that have been one of main supporting forces of the red-green government.

On international issues, relations between Berlin and Washington, which are described as in crisis by media, need to be repaired. But since Berlin's rejection of military threat on the Iraqi issue is supported by the public and the Green party has gained influence in the coalition, it will be interesting to see how Berlin can reconcile with Washington.

Berlin also has to deal with such thorny issues as the EU agricultural subsidy which has soured its ties with Paris and bogged down the eastward expansion of the community.

All in all, the red-green coalition has managed to pull a big upset on some opinion pollsters who had almost written it off one month before election, but its resiliency still face testing in times ahead.

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