China Capable of Doubling GDP in 2020: Economists

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, March 25, 2003

China Capable of Doubling GDP in 2020: Economists

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China has the ability to double its gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 20 years and become one of the world's major economic powers, according to leading economists and entrepreneurs convening in Beijing.

With regard to the China Development Forum which closed here Monday, the chief economist for Morgan Stanley, Stephen Roach, said China will play a leading role in the world economy in the next 10 to 20 years.

Roach said the new Chinese government's determination to continuously push forward reform confirmed his belief that China will have a more promising future.

The Communist Party of China (CPC), during last year's national congress, set the goal of doubling GDP by 2020, making China the third largest economic power in the world.

To achieve this goal, China will have to maintain an average annual economic growth of seven percent.

Group Chairman John Bond of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC), said that China has achieved amazing economic growth and effectively resolved relevant issues during the past 25 years.

Asian Development Bank President Chino Tadao said he believes China will be able to overcome challenges and achieve an average of seven percent economic growth in the coming 15 to 20 years.

China's pro-active fiscal policy, characterized by expanding investment in infrastructure construction in recent years, is "necessary", said Frederic Langer, head of the China and Asia Programmes Unit Centre for Cooperation with Non-Members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

China's policy of promoting domestic consumption should focus on stimulating individual spending and increasing the income of farmers in the coming years, the OECD official said.

Chinese policies, including the reform of the government structure, the improvement of the social security system and increasing investment in the education and science sectors, are on track, Langer said, noting that a number of questions remain in the area of government reform.

The OECD will closely observe China's reform this year, Langer said.

The global major consumer market will turn to those countries that have great potential to achieve rapid economic growth, and China is on the top list of the countries, said HSBC head John Bond.

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