Home>>Opinion
Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, May 11, 2003

News Analysis: Why is Pak-Indian Border Tension not Easing as Peace Crawls Ahead

No easing of tension has been seen across the Pakistan-Indian border throughout the past week, though the two countries' leaders were trying to gear up the dialogue progress.


PRINT DISCUSSION CHINESE SEND TO FRIEND


No easing of tension has been seen across the Pakistan-Indian border throughout the past week, though the two countries' leaders were trying to gear up the dialogue progress.

It is widely assumed among observers here as a sign showing that religious hardliners and military hawks of both sides will never be glad to see the peace process move forward. Strategists of both countries have to reevaluate how powerful the setback is on the road to peace, as the question raised by Aqil Shah, an Islamabad-based political researcher, "Will they (the hardliners) once again throw a spanner in the (peace making) works?"

On Friday, Pakistani and Indian forces traded shells along the disputed Kashmir border, leaving three Pakistani teenagers, aged 10, 7 and 5, dead in the Nakyal sector, Pakistani-controlled Kashmir. No reports were available on the loss of Indian side. On the same day, India test-fired an air-to-air missile, reportedly "with a new propelling system," just hours before US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage arrived in New Delhi to discuss India's recent peace moves with Pakistan. On Thursday, 16 allegedly Islamic militants and nine Indian soldiers died in the fire exchange in Srinagar, summer capital of Indian-controlled Kashmir. On Wednesday, border fire exchange, once again, claimed lives of seven Pakistani villagers.

All this has dampened the confidence of observers from both sides, who were excited as the two countries' leaders announced their wishes to restored the suspended diplomatic relations at theHigh Commissioner level and the air, road and railway links earlier this month after a series of exchange of "hands of friendship."

In Pakistan, the nearly 0.6-million-strong troops have been playing a key role in the country's political arena. Ever since Pakistan's independence in 1947, the army has for three times taken over power from civilian governments and for several times has destroyed the possible honeymoon between the two countries. The most recent case was in 1999, when former Prime Minister NawazSharif was hosting his Indian counterpart in Lahore holding important discussions on peace, the army hawks raised tension on the border, making the peace talks fail to reach any fruitful result.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Kasuri recently reiterated at a press conferences here that the army-uniformed President Musharrafand the army under his command fully back the government's peace moves. However, observers here are still skeptical of the military,who might think it will lose its raison d'etre when dialogue efforts are on progress.

On the Indian side, the situation is the same unambiguous. The army hawks will be unhappy when peace progress is getting new momentum. It is hard to say that Prime Minister Vajpayee likes to listen to the 1.27-million-strong troops, the fourth largest forceacross the world. But he just can not afford to turn a deaf ear toit. The recent border fire exchange and the missile test-fire wereproofs to this effect.

The history of the two countries shows that lack of peace gave rise to the bulky military setup on both sides, and for its own legitimacy, the military is blocking the road to peace.

Also the extremists in both countries will never be amused to see the peace progress underway. On Friday, one day after the bloodshed in Indian-controlled Kashmir, in which 25 people were killed, a group of Pakistani militants were caught while trying toinfiltrate into the Indian side. It was a sign showing the zealotswill never cease fire for Kashmir's independence.

The political hardliners on both sides also play their role. Vajpayee is facing the strong voice against the peace moves both from the opposition parties and from his own Bharatiya Janata Party (the People's Party). He has much more to worry about as theelections in four states are coming later this year and the general election is scheduled in next year -- hard stance in Pak-Indian relations will make him win votes, soft will lose, it is just so simple. Peace making at this very moment makes the Indian prime minister vulnerable to the hardliners' cross-fire.

Musharraf and the Pakistani government are facing the seeminglysame situation. The hardlining Mutahida Majlis-e-Amel(MMA), a coalition of six Islamic groups and the main opposition party in the parliament, will never miss the chance to slam the government for its policy making. It will not hurriedly voice opinions against the dialogue efforts. But If the Pakistani death toll of the border fire exchanges and of the conflicts in Indian-controlled Kashmir keeps rising, the government will feel more pressure.

After all, vested institutional interests in both India and Pakistan are strong enough to scuttle any major progress in bilateral relations. Observers here believe that the chance might be great that the relations between the two sides can be restored to the level before the Indian parliament building was attacked bymilitants in December 2001, which was blamed on Pakistan's sponsoring, however the chance for further development seems gloomy.


Questions?Comments? Click here
    Advanced








 


CCTV English Channel Landing in United States ( 29 Messages)

Wu Yi: China Hopes for Further Cooperation with US on SARS ( 2 Messages)

Chinese Premier Calls for Patriotism in SARS Fight ( 2 Messages)

Iraq War Provides Opportunity for US to Reshape Mideast ( 3 Messages)



Copyright by People's Daily Online, all rights reserved