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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, September 08, 2003

China to See Peak Steel Production within 3 Years: Expert

China will see a peak in its steel production within three years, when annual output reaches over 200million tons, an academician with the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) predicted Sunday.


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China will see a peak in its steel production within three years, when annual output reaches over 200million tons, an academician with the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) predicted Sunday.

Speaking at a forum on new materials in Zibo city, east China's Shandong province, Zhang Shourong, the CAE academician and also senior engineer with the Wuhan Steel and Iron Group in central China's Hubei province, said that the high production might last until 2020, after which the industry would reach a plateau.

Zhang said that the prediction was made by consulting the development of steel production in the United States and other countries and by taking into consideration China's per capita gross domestic product (GDP).

In a nation with an integrated industrial system, whose per capita GDP exceeds 1,000 US dollars, the per capita steel output should reach at least 100 kilograms a year. The per capita GDP of China is expected to reach 3,000 US dollars by 2020, according to the nation's blueprint for development, said Zhang.

Calculated at an average of 150 kilograms per capita a year, or50 percent more than the minimum of 100 kilograms, the annual steel output of China is expected to hit 200 million tons, Zhang said.

China produced 181 million tons of steel last year.


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