US, Japan, ROK and India want to enter Southeast Asia

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, December 15, 2003

US, Japan, ROK and India want to enter Southeast Asia

ASEAN, a regional cooperative organization with only 10 medium and small countries, presents a bustling scene with crowds of guests.

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Big powers join Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda announced at a press conference on November 18 that the Japanese government had decided to join the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia. Japan will, with the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the partnership between Japan and ASEAN as an opportunity, hold a special summit conference between Japan and ASEAN in Tokyo in mid-December. Some media said that Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi would take the chance to lobby ASEAN leaders to jointly publish a prospective document on strengthening the economic relations of the two sides and meanwhile reverse Japan's long-term stance of refusing to join the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia. Yomiuri Shimbun once reported that Japan will next prepare to propose to the ASEAN for the establishment of an East Asian union, an Asian version similar to the European Union.

China formally joined the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia at the ASEAN Summit held this October, making it the first big power from outside the region to join the treaty. India joined the treaty immediately after China.

In August 2003, Russian President Putin paid a historic visit to Malaysia and signed an arms sales contract worth US$900 million. Sources said that Russia also had the intention to accede to the above-said Treaty. Moreover, US President George W. Bush, despite the woes of the anti-terrorist battle and the "Kelly Gate" (Intelligence Gate), attended the Informal APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting held in Bangkok in October, showing US attention to the Asia-Pacific region, to East Asia, especially Southeast Asia.

ASEAN, a regional cooperative organization with only 10 medium and small countries, presents a bustling scene with crowds of guests.

Countries put forward plans for cooperation

China decided to establish a free trade zone with ASEAN by 2010. In 2002, the trade volume between ASEAN and China totaled about US$55 billion. Experts pointed out that, after the China-ASEAN free trade zone is established, China's export to ASEAN will increase US$10.63 billion, up 55.1 percent, and that of ASEAN to China will increase US$13 billion, a 48 percent rise. Besides, ASEAN is an economic region with 1.7 billion consumers, a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of US$2 trillion and a total trade value of US$1.2 trillion. The free trade zone can be regarded as a cooperation mechanism aimed to promote the positive factors around south China. Its geopolitical significance is that, there appears for the first time a group of countries pursuing common prosperity and stability with China for the common interests of the 11 countries with 1.7 billion people. Just as some Southeast Asian media put it, it is a "bold political commitment", the significance of which is "by no means limited to economy". Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong's comments conveyed the general views of ASEAN countries: the establishment of a free trade zone is, of course, important to China, it is of all the more "important strategic significance" for ASEAN.

The initiative taken by China to promote its economic relations with ASEAN obviously sparked the "enthusiasm" of the international community for the ASEAN. Many countries including Japan, the United States, Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand have set about to establish closer economic and trade partnership with ASEAN. Even Russia has set to enter this zone.

Last year, Australia and New Zealand signed a statement to establish close economic partnership; the United States put forward the so called "proposal to inspire ASEAN", encouraging ASEAN countries to launch economic reforms and claimed that qualified countries will be permitted to sign bilateral free trade agreement with the United States through negotiations; Japan and ASEAN signed the "Joint Declaration on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Partnership"

India also expressed its hope to sign a free trade agreement with ASEAN. India issued in 1993 its "policy of going east", striving to push forward toward the Pacific Ocean and toward the goal of making itself a "colorful big power". India's present trade value with ASEAN stands at about US$10 billion.

Russia also intends to promote its economic ties with ASEAN through participating in cooperation with East Asia. Russia, after withdrawing from Cam Ranh Bay, wanted to enter Southeast Asia with a new image because it needed to develop munitions trade with ASEAN countries.

Why Southeast Asia becomes a treasured land?

Why is Southeast Asia so important that big countries outside the region throng to it? Is it because of the equilibrium policy of power long been carried out by ASEAN which took the initiative to introduce the forces of big powers outside the region, to maintain the overall interest of the Southeast Asia and also to enhance the international position of ASEAN? Or is it a signal for a new round of rivalry among big powers outside which think highly of this treasured land?

Japan's Kyodo News Service once pointed out in an article that Southeast Asia has long been an important trade passage since ancient times, therefore the competition over the region's free trade agreements is, in essence, a contest for dominance in a future East Asian union. Moreover, the unique geographic location of the Southeast Asia, a key communication channel linking the Pacific Ocean and the India Ocean, gives this region more strategic significance.

The war lasted the longest during the Cold War period was the Vietnam War in Southeast Asia then regarded as the "Balkan in Asia". ASEAN was just established in 1967 against this background. However, it was only after the Cold War that the role of ASEAN was given full play. The "force vacuum", left by the United States after it was forced to withdraw from its base in the Philippine, provided ASEAN with a stage for maneuver and space for its constant development.

During early and middle 1990s, ASEAN, on the one hand, tried to maintain US force and, on the other hand, actively invited the three powers of China, Russia and India for equilibrium. ASEAN drastically renovate the "ASEAN Foreign Minister Followed-up Conference", a dialog mechanism established in the 1970s. On the basis of a dialogue partnership of the United States, Europe, Japan and Australia, China, Russia and India were added to dialogue. ASEAN, making use of the interval when big countries' adjustments on foreign strategies were not yet in place, took the initiative to play a leading role in regional cooperation. Its objectives in establishing the ASEAN Regional Forum, were first, with the informal regular dialogue mechanism, to "force" the United States to seriously think about the Asia-Pacific security issue at least once each year; second, to help China, Russia and India "join" the Asia-Pacific region, and urge them to play active and positive roles as big powers; third, to provide Asia-Pacific countries with a platform to reduce misunderstandings and enhance trust, so as to maintain regional peace and stability. Particularly since 1997, China has played an extremely important role in recovering the international community's confidence in the ASEAN and promoting the development of East Asian cooperation.

In addition, by relying on its regional economic advantages, ASEAN has formed a new type of international division of labor. For instance, in terms of computer manufacturing, Singapore produces computer hard disks, Malaysia produces semiconductor chips and Thailand turns out displayer while Singapore enterprises organize the series of production activities. What's more, at the ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting held in early September 2003, various parties agreed unanimously on speeding up the establishment of an ASEAN free trade zone. According to an official with the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Indonesia, attendants at the meeting also decided to introduce coordinated prices for 11 types of priority products from January 1, 2004 and made relevant division of labor: Indonesia is responsible for timber and auto products, Malaysia for rubber and textiles, Myanmar for agriculture and fishery, the Philippines for electronic products, Singapore for electronic network and medicine and health and Thailand for tourism and aviation. The Regional manufacturing system has strengthened the economic complementariness among ASEAN countries.

"ASEAN fever" keeps rising

In fact, the United States, India and Japan casting their eyes again on ASEAN represents to some extent their intentions to "rival" China in Southeast Asia. The United States is the largest investor and trade partner of Asia. Ernest Bower, president of the US-ASEAN Business Council, said: "I've never seen the United States so alienated from this region either. China, like laser, instantly focuses on this region. And this is out of our expectations." Japan's Kyodo News Service reported that China's positive posture also constitutes one of the reasons for Japan's quickened pace in the negotiations on free trade. Just as Asahi Shimbun put it in an editorial, when Japan was still dawdling, its neighbor to the south has dashed out with China. Japan and Korea started after being left one circle behind.

After China and the ASEAN made the decision to establish a free trade zone in 2001, Kim Dae Jung, then President of the Republic of Korea, said that the ROK must "catch up with those ahead", and expressed his hope to expand the China-ASEAN free trade zone to "East Asia free trade zone." In 2003, Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi began to draw his stance close to China and the ROK, agreed and signed the "Joint Declaration on the Promotion of Tripartite Cooperation among the People's Republic of China, Japan and the Republic of Korea" proposed by China.

In the present West Pacific region, with the Southeast Asia as a tie, the "cooperation pressure" on various parties is intensifying. Many parties believe that the only choice is to participate actively in all kinds of cooperation despite the increasingly fierce unavoidable competitions in cooperation.

This is an article on page 7 of Global Times, December 8, was written by Shang Qianhong; and translated by PD Online staff member Gao Lanrong.

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