Government adviser: China's growth credible

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, December 18, 2003

Government adviser: China's growth credible

Senior government advisers yesterday said China's brisk economic growth is credible, dispelling doubts by foreign researchers that the statistics have been exaggerated

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Senior government advisers yesterday said China's brisk economic growth is credible, dispelling doubts by foreign researchers that the statistics have been exaggerated

Renowned economist Li Yining, a standing member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), said some researchers' doubt are based on China's slower increase of energy consumption rather than its economy.

"The researchers should be informed of some basic facts taking place during China's process of reform and opening up,'' said Li.

Some economists believe China's economic growth, pegged at an average of 9 per cent per year during the past quarter century, has been overstated, Li learnt during a recent visit to Cambridge University in England.

Li said China's energy consumption growth was slowed down because China has closed many medium and small enterprises with high energy consumption levels while newer technologies have improved energy-savings.

Li made these remarks during his keynote speech at the CPPCC-sponsored 21st Century Forum which opened yesterday in Beijing.

The China Society for World Trade Organization Studies co-sponsored the two-day forum with the theme of Investing in China: World's Choice and China's Policy.

Li insisted China's economy has been underrated because much of the income generated is not included in growth numbers due to institutional failures.

For instance, the income of about 10 million nursemaids nationwide has not been taken into account by China's statistics organizations. Meanwhile, many private enterprises have not fully reported their income.

Conflicting views about China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth have aroused in recent years. In the past, many foreign economists held the view that China's GDP was overvalued.

But contrary to some foreign scholars' estimates, over the past two years many Chinese and foreign economists have suggested that it may be "several percentage points less" than the actual growth figure.

China's GDP in the first nine months of this year grew by 8.5 per cent from the same period last year and that growth will likely keep pace for the whole year.

The GDP growth rate in the 3rd quarter should be 14.2 per cent, according to the Swedish Bank's internal computing system. That number is much higher than the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) 9.1 per cent growth rate.

The Swedish Bank also predicted that China's 2003 GDP growth rate may be around 11 per cent, which is also obviously higher than NBS's "8.5 per cent annual economic growth rate" estimates.

The view was echoed by Chinese famous economists including Wu Jinglian. Wu was quoted as saying at a recent seminar that China's GDP growth in the first half of 2003 was over 10 per cent and he expected annual economic growth may beat the government's estimate.

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