Change in the Middle East situation: News Analysis

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, January 16, 2004

Change in the Middle East situation: News Analysis

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Currently, changes in the Middle East situation is closely connected with the overthrow of the former Iraqi regime and the capture of Saddam Hussein. The "post-Saddam era" of the Arab world has set in and is undergoing marked and radical changes which merit high attention.

The change of Libya is the most conspicuous and the softening up of its policy is the most striking and prominent. After Tripoli agreed to bear responsibility for the "Rockerby air accident" in August 2003 and paid huge amounts of money for the families of the victims, Libya declared on December 19, 2003 that it was to abandon its WMD (weapons of massive destruction) plan. Libya's change in its attitude toward Israel is especially attractive. Libya has always pursued a policy of "no reconciliation, no negotiation and no recognition" and condemned any form of Middle East peace conference and agreement. However, the recent news that Libyan-Israeli relations were somehow loosened and relaxed and the two parties even had secret contacts and talks is particularly interesting.

Despite Libya's denial, analysts believe that it is very logical that the two parties have had such contacts. An Arabian-language newspaper headquartered in London said on January 9 that Libya criticized Israel through a third party for its lack of basic morals in international relations, as expressed in its disclosing to the media things about the negotiations between the two parties, and thus called off the secret contact between the two countries.

However, Israel has long divulged the news that Israel and Libya are keeping in contacts on the establishment of diplomatic relations, officials of the two countries also held talks in Paris and Israel planned to send a senior delegation composed of officials with the Foreign and Defense ministries and intelligence departments to Libya. But Israeli officials said that the Sharon's government, fearing that the matter was heating up too fast and after making careful consideration, deliberately told the media that the matter was a "leakage of secret", so as to put off the matter and try to push it forward steadily in the future.

In Syria, President Bashar al Assad has more than once made similar remarks after appealing for unconditional resumption of negotiations with Israel during an interview with the New York Times in December 2003. With regard to Syria's appeal, Israel, on the one hand, demanded that Damascus first control the actions of Lebanon Hezbullah guerillas and, on the other hand, stressed that the negotiations must start from scratch in a bid to completely negate the content of the talks between former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and his counterpart of Syria.

A plan aimed to establish Jewish Settlement in the Golan Heights, to build 900 additional housing units and to double the number of Jewish immigrants in three years was passed by a cabinet committee of Israel on December 31, 2003. The Golan Heights was occupied by Israel in the war in 1967. Opinions differ in Israel on whether to resume negotiations with Syria and Sharon was uncertain what to do under pressure from the two sides. There was report saying that Syria and Israel had had preliminary contacts and the results were not bad. However, analysts do not place much expectation on this at the moment. Lately, Israel invited Syrian President to visit Israel but the offer was rejected, which indicated that the top leaders of both sides differ in their views about relaxation of bilateral relations.

Egypt-Iran negotiations on resuming their diplomatic relations also aroused people's attention. Reports say that Egypt-Iran negotiations are under way and the two countries are likely to resume diplomatic relations after an interval of nearly 25 years. Iran severed its diplomatic relations with Egypt in 1979 after the Islamic Revolution because Egypt singed with Israel the Camp David agreement and offered asylum for the resigned leader Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, then king of Iran. After making some goodwill posture to Egypt, Egypt President Mohammed Hosni Mubarak took the opportunity of attending the World Summit on the Information Society to hold meeting with President Mohammad Khatami in Geneva and after that the two countries' relations somehow improved. According to a senior Egyptian official, Mubarak will visit Tehran next month by availing himself of the opportunity for attending a conference of economic summit. News from the Egyptian side says that Egypt will resume sending Ambassador to Iran even before Mubarak's formal visit. Egypt and Iran are both regional big powers, so resumption of the diplomatic relations between the two countries will surely and significantly influence the regional politics, foreign affairs and economy.

Now there is no sign of resumption of negotiation between Palestine and Israel which have had the "Road Map", and outcome of the meetings between prime ministers of the two countries is unknown either. Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurie said days ago that if the Sharon administration carries out the plan announced last month on occupation of part of the land on the West Bank of the Jordan River, Palestinians will seek to establish a country with Israel. However, US State Secretary Colin Powell clearly expressed opposition to this on January 8 and reiterated that Palestine and Israel must be two countries. While presiding over a meeting of Palestine in Ramallah on the evening of January 9, Yasser Arafat reiterated that Palestine has the right, according to International Law and agreements reached with Israel, to establish, in all the land occupied in 1967, an independent democratic Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. He also appealed that international troops and observers be sent to supervise the process of state establishment.

The Middle East situation is turning toward relaxation and this change may mark the beginning of a radical, historic change. It may bring about a change in the regional strategic pattern and the redistribution of interests among big powers in the region.

By People's Daily Online

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