Security and economy: two cards in Bush's presidential election bid

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Thursday, February 19, 2004

Security and economy: two cards in Bush's presidential election bid

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The history of US presidential election seems to show that the president, however successful in diplomacy, could secure the position in the White House for another four years only by doing well in economy. However the reality after the "9. 11" terrorist attack indicated that the president must not only do well in economy but must also ensure the security of the US homeland. Only by doing so is it hopeful of being re-elected.

The current US president and the only candidate of US Republican George W. Bush obviously has long been aware of the two points mentioned above. Recently Bush has been playing hard the cards of security and economy in a bid for a second win in the presidential election in November.

Fiscal deficit props huge budget for national defense

Catering for the psychological needs of voters

On one hand, Bush made a fuss about "security" through the draft of the federal budget. On Feb. 2, Bush handed over the draft of the budget for 2005 to the Congress. The budget, totaling US$ 2.4 trillion with an estimated fiscal deficit as high as US $521 billion, a record high, was ridiculed by Democrats as a budget draft that "puts US future on mortgage". According to the draft, in the 2005 fiscal year beginning from October 1, 2004, the budget for US national defense will increase by 7 percent to US$ 401 billion. The budget for homeland security will increase by 10 percent and for other domestic expenditures by only 0.5 percent, lower than the inflationary rate. It is thus clear that national defense and homeland security are the "major winners" in the budget draft. The political implication is self-evident: Bush wants to prove to the voters that he is the guard of US national security and only he can free the US people from the fear of terrorist attacks.

Bush's playing hard the "security card" reveals his consideration of the Americans' psychological changes after the "9. 11" terrorist attacks in 2001. Before the "9. 11" event, few American people were worried about their own safety because the United States, after its establishment, had never suffered external attack on its land. However, the "9. 11" event changed everything overnight and led to the great concern among the Americans over their own safety. Bush's playing hard the "security card" was pandered to the voters' psychological needs. Walter Russell Mead, author of the book "Power, Terror, Peace, and War: America's Grand Strategy in a World at Risk" soon to be published, said that now "nobody will say that you have done too much for national defense. That you have not done enough is a major danger here ".

Weak US dollar supports stable economic recovery

Hope for a promising employment prospect

On the other hand, Bush is also playing hard the "economy card". Although the statement issued after the meetings of the financial ministers of G7 countries (the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Canada and Italy) warned the "undue fluctuation and inordinate changes of the exchange rate are unfavorable to the economic growth," no concrete measures were presented to stop the fall of US dollar. US Treasury Secretary John Snow reiterated before and after the meetings that the US government's current policies on US dollar would not change in the short term. Presently, the US economy is embarking on the track of steady resurgence, but the employment index etc. is not desirable. The Bush administration actually hopes to see the weak US dollar can promote the employment in the United States so as to facilitate the presidential election in November.

Bush even did not forget to encourage the American people by showing them the prosperous side of the US economy. He mentioned in the "Economic Report of the President" submitted to the Congress on Feb. 9 that "the economic strength of the United States is increasing", the 2003 tax-cut measures proved very fruitful as they promoted the economic growth. The report said, the US economy weathered a series of tests, as the bubble burst in the stock market in 2000 did not ebbed away, there followed economic downturn and then the terrorist attack, Afghanistan and Iraq wars and corporate accounting scandals, etc. Bush announced proudly: "Luckily, all the problems were conquered." Bush also promised a 4-percent growth of the US economy in 2004 and an increase of 2.6 million jobs.

Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve pointed out when making testimony in the US House of Representatives on Feb. 11 that up to now, the weakening of US dollar has little impact on the inflation in the United States and depreciation of US dollar is conducive to the cutting of the huge current account deficit. The remarks of Greenspan, dubbed as the "steersman of the US economy", offered enough favor to Bush. Excited by Greenspan's remarks, the three major stock indexes in the New York Stock Exchange all soared and Dow Jones index hit a record high since the past two and a half years.

Public approval rate turns down, not up

Effects of the cards to be seen

Although Bush played hard the "security card" and "economy card", the Democrats obviously did not buy into it. John Kerry, who is now getting popular in the preliminary election of the Democratic candidate for presidential election, said, among the past 11 US presidents, Bush is the one "with the worst record in handling the employment problem".

Presently, the US economy is running well, but as affected by factors such as the "intelligence gate", the public approval rate of Bush drops to a new low. The latest poll jointly conducted by National Broadcasting Corporation and Washington Post shows that Bush's overall approval rate has gone down to about 50 percent and his sincerity index is also at a record low. Therefore, we shall wait and see effects of Bush's cards of security and economy.

By People's Daily Online

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