US administrator in Iraq Paul Bremer (R) Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi (C) and the country's most senior judge Midhat Mahmoud (L) smile while holding a legal document during the handover of sovereignty ceremony June 28, 2004 in Baghdad. (Reuters)

The United States on Monday handed over sovereignty to the Iraqi interim government two days ahead of schedule to give Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi "more leverage and strengthens" to deal with the threats inside his country.

But analysts say the power transfer and the rashly-established interim government will not easily bring peace and stability to the Middle East country plagued by bloody confrontation.

Insurgency prevails

The handover, although a significant step towards Iraq's political reconstruction, is unlikely to eradicate the roots of violence and anti-American sentiments, analysts believe.

Recent opinion polls show most Iraqis, except the Kurds in northern Iraq, have become increasingly opposed to the presence of US-led coalition forces in their country and hope the troops will be withdrawn as soon as possible.

But over 130,000 US troops will continue to stay in Iraq, shifting their focus to helping Iraqi security forces fight militants rather than tackling them directly.

Analysts say the power transfer will not appease the insurgents responsible for the recent violent activities and the turbulence in Iraq will continue as long as the US maintains its military presence.

A string of bloody attacks in five cities killed about 100 people last week in the most violent bid recently to derail Iraq's transition to an interim government.

Challenges await

Despite a seemingly smooth handover of power, the interim government, whose public support and ability to run a sovereign country remain in doubt, is faced with grave challenges.

Since the US and the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) agreed in November last year to transfer sovereignty to Iraqis on June 30, disputes over how to establish an interim Iraqi government have dragged on.

Only a week before the handover did the US decide to allow the most sensitive 11 ministries, among 25 ministries in the interim government, to be put under Iraqi control. Analysts say the interim government's insufficient experience of government is unlikely to enable it to perform effectively after the power transfer.

Adding to the worry is the component of the interim government. The majority of the new Iraqi leaders emerged after living in exile which means they are probably not well known in Iraq and relatively inexperienced in running a country.

Moreover, the presence of nearly 200 American or British "experts" in the Iraqi government as "consultants" is likely to spark further distrust.

Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawar (R) and Prime Minister Iyad Allawi took their oaths before a senior Iraqi judge, followed by the rest of the cabinet members. The interim Iraqi government was officially sworn in on June 28. (Xinhua/AFP)

Security tops democracy

The issue of security was also the most tough challenge facing Iraqi and American authorities in the next six months, said analysts.

If the interim government led by Iyad Allawi and the US forces due to lead a multinational force in Iraq fail to restore security and eliminate the hideouts of armed groups, they would not be able to achieve any step in the political and economic process, said Muhsin Hussein, an Iraqi political observer.

Asked about his opinion of the elections to be held next year, Abdul Jabbar Al Saedy, a grocery shop owner in Baghdad, frankly replied that "Iraqis prefer security to democracy."

"It would be impossible to hold democratic elections in an atmosphere of bombings, killing and massacres like the ones we are having nowadays," he added.

"Security gives us bread, living, working and stability, while democracy would only give us a luxury that we don't even dream of in our current situation, not even in the near future," said Satar Jabbar, a taxi driver.

Since the first day for the formation of the government, Prime Minister Allawi considered that providing security comes at the top of his agenda.

"It is not a secret that the desire to provide security is the main point that pushed Allawi to the front," said Dara Ali, a retired Iraqi army officer.

He noted that Allawi worked in security field during the former regime before he seceded from it and fled abroad to form his opposition National Accord Movement. Allawi was also assigned the task of heading the security committee when an interim governing council was installed by the US authority.

Allawi kept in the past year demanding Americans to handover the security dossier to Iraqis, arguing that the Iraqi police were more capable than US troops in hunting insurgents.

"But (US overseer of Iraq) Paul Bremer procrastinated for 11 months before they were convinced of Allawi's opinion," said Ali.

"Allawi sees that one of the reasons for insecurity in Iraq is the decision that Bremer had taken to dissolve the former army and the intelligence service," added the former lieutenant colonel.

Allawi has pledged to revive Iraqi army and police and pay their salaries to lessen the frustration that spread in Iraq to the extent that it pushed some Iraqi security members to the side of resistance, he pointed out.

Horse trading continues

The interim Iraqi government, recognized by the United Nations, will never be satisfied with the "limited sovereignty" granted by the US, analysts say.

The US failed in its original plan to build an Iraqi government led by pro-US secularists which it thought could help the country embark on the path toward "democracy" and garantee the US interests in Iraq after the handover of power.

But the CPA have been trying to balance the power of every party of Iraq in the "independent" new government, in a move to shed its image as a "US puppet."

The anti-US stance was most noted when the CPA was considering the choice of the new Iraqi president. All parties set aside their differences and voiced their objection to the candidate preferred by the US.

The Kurds, who have been "friendly" to the US, made its last-minute demand that either president or prime minister should be a Kurd. The US made considerable concessions to agree to leave some key posts in the cabinet to Kurds.

Analysts say the horse trading will continue after the handover of power as the interim government continues its efforts to seek more public support.

Winning hearts and minds

The Prime Minster has to work to win supports of anti-occupation forces by convincing them that his government does not have a relation with the multinational forces to stay around Iraq.

He needs also to clear himself of the laws and resolutions issued by the dead coalition authority.

Allawi announced Sunday in an article published by the British "Independent On Sunday" that he understood the attitude of Iraqis who carried out operations against the US-led forces and their feeling of frustration, and that he would grant them a pardon.

What seemed more striking was his resolve that his government would distinguish between resistance and foreign extremists, whom he described as "terrorists and criminals aiming at killing innocents and failing Iraq."

His plans for providing security have been welcomed by Iraqis, who suffered insecurity and instability throughout the past year.

A latest poll said that 45 percent of Iraqis were satisfied with the government while only 17 percent were against it.

Most of the interviewees demanded the security reestablished as soon as possible, and 38 percent expected the goal could be achieved by Allawi's administration.

Huge challenges in road to democracy

The democratic change in Iraq is expected to witness difficulties in the deteriorating security condition and the ambitions of the political parties and movements, which will not hesitate in using their militias to realize their goals.

Iraqis will work on forming legislative bodies in several phases and with two targets.

The first target is to form an interim National Assembly, which will be chosen by a 100-deputy national conference due to be held in July.

The second is to hold elections in December 2004 or January 2005 to form the National Assembly (parliament), which will be under the supervision of the United Nations.

The National Assembly will not be formed by elections but by agreements, which was first suggested on Nov. 15, 2003 when the dissolved Iraqi Interim Governing Council (IGC) and the US-led coalition authority reached an agreement.

Other Iraqi parties, including the influential one led by Great Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani, the highest leader of Shiite Muslims, objected to the process of choosing assembly members but insisted on holding direct elections.

Other parties, though they supported direct elections, said that it would be impossible to hold elections before conducting a general census and security situations becoming better.

Al Sistani agreed to the condition that the United Nations sends a special delegation to assess the situation in Iraq, and if it recommend postponing the direct elections, he will approve it.

The United Nations sent Al Akhdhar Al Ibrahim as a special envoy to Iraq in February, who conducted a number of meetings with various figures and then submitted a report to the United Nations, recommending that the elections be held by the end of 2004 or the beginning of 2005.

The United Nations announced in June that seven Iraqis will form the independent supreme body to supervise the elections, and it has allocated 260 million US dollars as expenses for the elections.

The seven Iraqis have headed directly to Mexico to study a similar experience that took place there under the supervision of the United Nations.

They are expected to be back in Baghdad next week, and then they would start preparing the plans for the elections.

However, the new Iraqi prime minister, Ayad Allawi, said recently that the elections would be postponed if the tense security conditions continued in the country.

"They could be held later in February or March 2005," said the prime minister.