China's grain supply pressure in future doesn't come from grain for human but from grain for livestock, said Ren Jizhou, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a famed expert on grassland science, at a meeting of the Chinese Grassland Society held recently in Hohhot, capital of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

The demand-supply relation of grain in today's China is walking away from tradition, Zhou said. Statistics show that the per capita grain supply for rural people is 233 kg, while the per capita grain consumption for urban dwellers has declined from 160 kg in 1978 to 78 kg in 2002, about one third of the rural consumption. In the past two decades China's grain consumption didn't increase while the consumption of animal products such as meat, egg and milk soared up. The increase and decrease are near in amount, showing a historical change in the country's food structure.

In 1984, grain production reached 400 million tons, or 394 kg per capita, which met the basic demand of human grain and fodder and included 280 million tons grain for people and 120 million tons fodder. After 20 years' development, China's grain demand increased about 100 million tons, with altogether 506 million tons needed, including 300 million tons for people and 200 million tons for livestock.

According to Zhou's estimations, under the goal that grain production meets needs of 1.6 billion people by 2020, in coming 15 years rural population will continue to decrease while the proportion of urban population will get bigger. The decrease of urban need for grain can fully satisfy the needs of newly added population. The need for man's grain will not increase while along with the improvement of food structure it will need 400 million tons fodder by 2020.

The reason why fodder need becomes a threat of food security lies in the long-term negligence of grass-eating livestock and over attention to the pig. China is the world largest pig raiser (460 million in number) and their fodder accounts for 35 percent of whole-year grain production, or the capacity of 37.33 million hectares of farming land. In future China should raise more grass-eating livestock to ease the pressure on grain and develop a sustainable modern agriculture through implementing a grassland agricultural system.

By People's Daily Online