Number of Chinese bachelors estimated at 4m in 2020: Demographers

Among the group of Chinese people aged between 22 and 49 in 2004, males outnumber females by 16.97 million, this figure comes within the normal scope; by 2020 males will outnumber females by 21.91 million.

The number of 4 million bachelors is worked out this way: 21.91m-16.97m = 4 million

According to the CCTV "Chinese Population" report, the saying that "China will have 30 million bachelors" in 2020 has appeared in succession the recent month in newspapers, websites, television and broadcasting stations, which has immediately become a hot spot of concern to people from all walks of life. Has the question of gender ratio become so serious? In the CCTV "Chinese Population" program broadcasted yesterday afternoon, demographers and frontline researchers introduced to the audiences the calculation method, making a most truthful and most objective remark about his question.

Chen Shengli, leader of the experts group for taking care of girls under the State Population and Family Planning Commission, who participated in the program, said: "On this question, experts on the social systemic project have made a variety of project calculations, the result of the calculation proves the saying about "30 million bachelors" is completely untrue. The project they worked out this year is directed at the group of people aged 22-49, because among this group of people, 28 age groups are the matrimonial mainstay. In these 28 age groups, the number of males in 2004 is 16.97 million more than that of females, which is a figure within the normal scope."

Then Chen Shengli explained in detail the reason why the figure 16.97 million comes within the normal scope, he said: "Because some people born in 1982 are 22 years old in 2004, and those aged 49 in 2004 were born in 1954. While China's gender ratio in 1954-1982 was normal. By 2020, this figure will have changed a little bit, of those aged between 22 and 49, males will outnumber females by 21.91 million. If this normal figure of 16.97 million is subtracted from 21.91 million, there are only 4 million more males."

Yuan Jianhua, chief researcher at the systemic project of China Space 710 Research Institute, is a frontline calculation research fellow, he also said, "First of all, when China's marriage age population is balanced, males outnumber females by about 16 million, This is a basic characteristic of our population development. By the year 2020, of the marriage age population, males will outnumber females by 21.91 million, this is only a population of nearly 4 million more than the normal acceptable figure of 16 million. Therefore, we should say that by 2020, the number of bachelors possibly appearing in China is not 30 million, nor 40 million, but is 4 million. "

Chen Shengli expressed his hope that the media, while reporting, should give accurate figures, otherwise, putting the figure casually at 40 million would bring unnecessary nervousness. He also said showing concern for gender ratio of births is not fussing about trifles, because abnormality, once emerges, will directly affect the practice, known as "Upon growing up, every man should take a wife and every woman should take a husband, we must give adequate attention to this point.

By People's Daily Online