The United States has recently uttered a new wave of charges against Iran, which Washington had accused of being involved into the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, but war is unlikely on the Mideast country, at least before the November US presidential elections.

The United States and Israel have long been threatening to launch preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. What happened in the past months seems to give a signal that the Bush administration may have sorted out Iran as its next target and Washington's diplomatic and political containment may turn into military operations.

Washington granted protected status to nearly 4,000 members of the anti-Tehran Mujahedeen Khalq Organization (MKO) in July and accused Iran of being involved into the terrorist attacks occurred on Sept. 11, 2001.

On September 1, US Secretary of State Colin Powell uttered the new wave of attack, announcing Washington would prompt the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to refer Iran's nuclear case to the UN Security Council.

Even so, some analysts here believed the US threat is unlikely to be escalated into war for the time being.

Obviously, if the United States extends aggression to Iran out of the diplomatic and legal domains, it will wait for the nuclear watchdog's decision.

Furthermore, whatever conclusion is reached at the IAEA meeting, the United States will be too preoccupied with the presidential election to spare any energy for Iran, and adopting any new tactics against Iran seems to be too risky for the Bush campaign.

And Iran will also hold its presidential election in May next year. The United States will not be so impatient that it can not wait until Iran's next president emerges.

If the reformists, who are more willing to cooperate with the West, continue to hold the Iranian presidency after the election, Washington can adopt more political and diplomatic measures to reach its strategic goal.

If the conservatives come into power, it will not be too late for Washington to plan operations then.

Moreover, considering Iran's military capacity, the United States has to calculate the price of launching a war upon the country with counterattack muscle.

Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani said last month that Iran has achieved the effective deterrent power to confront its enemies in the region.

Iran's Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile, an upgraded version of which was successfully tested last month, can reach any strategic site in the Middle East.

On the other hand, Iran, although it has the capability of attacking the US military bases in the Middle East, is definitely unwilling to plunge itself into a military counterwork with the only superpower in the world.

Therefore, Iran, though beleaguered by Washington politically and militarily, will be very cautious within the battlefields that has opened so far and tried to clear itself of the US accusations within the framework of the international laws.

Source: Xinhua