Four major factors decide tough policy

After his reelection, what next action US President George W. Bush will take in his foreign policy is the focus of world attention.

The tough "unilateral" foreign policy consistently adopted by the Bush administration in the past has offended many of its allies as well as the United Nations (UN). So most American voters strongly demand that Bush change his "isolation" tendency.

After he was reelected, Bush indicated his intention to seek cooperation with European and NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies in the aspects of the "fight against terrorism and tyrannical rule and the promotion of world democracy and freedom". White House officials interpreted this as consideration of a certain kind of "change in diplomatic styles", so as to seek ways for improving bilateral ties with some of their allies which are going farther and farther away. But at the same time they also reminded the Western allies that they should grasp the opportunity of Bush's successful reelection to map out new methods for contacts with the United States. An American official not to be identified pointed out that repair of US relations with other countries cannot be based on the principle impairing US national interests.

US Secretary of State Colin Powell lately also made it clear that Bush will continue to carry out an "offensive" foreign policy. "Bush has no intention to retreat, he has the right to go in quest of US national interests in international affairs; he would not adjust the course or withdraw, this is the continuation of his principle, policy and belief; "although the Bush administration would also pursue cooperation with the international community, it would still adopt independent actions when necessary".

It is not hard to see that the Bush administration's future foreign policy, far from having any intended change on "essential" issues, will be upgraded--become tougher, except for possible slight adjustment in "patterns".

Analysts hold that there are four main factors for Bush's new administration's continued "tough" foreign policy. First, in the recently reelected US Congress both the Senate and House of Representatives are controlled by the Republican Party, therefore, the White House and the Republican Party-controlled Congress may echo each other in giving Bush more freedom and decision-making power; second, as long as Vice-President Cheney continues to serve as US diplomatic "military counselor", and whether Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense is to be changed or not, the foreign policy foundation of the White House and the Republican Party will not be changed; third, there are the soil and climate in favor of the "tough" policy. The neo-conservative trend of thought appeared in the 1970s turned from strong to weak during the Clinton era, but the "September 11, 2001" incident gave it new life and development, now the reelection of Bush as the president indicates that the conservatives in US society take the upper hand, a turn to the right has become a tendency; fourth, it is Bush's hope to follow the example of Ronald Reagan. Reagan was considered the man who used both tough and soft policies to overturn the Berlin Wall which resulted in the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, and he thus won the Cold War and his reputation thus went down in the annals of American history. The "September 11" terrorist attacks made Bush believe that the "preemptive"tough policy is the only magic weapon for protecting the United States. In his opinion, facts of the Iraq war prove that the toppling of an "evil regime"not only can be achieved, but also is an embodiment of the values of US undertaking of the "global mission".

The tough policy manifests itself in four major fields

It is estimated that the Bush administration's hard policy will be manifested in future four major fields.

First is the Iraq issue. Recently Bush has clearly emphasized: Although some long-term allies of the United States, such as France and Germany, have criticized his Iraq policy, however, he will act in accordance with his established guideline in Iraq. At the moment, Bush hopes that he could "cut a tangled skein of jute with a sharp knife"--take resolute and effective measures to bring about a quick solution to the after-effect of the Iraq war. US troops in Iraq are at the moment launching a general offensive against Fallujah, the base of anti-US armed force, and are ready to recover other bases of anti-US armed forces one by one. On this issue, an example illustrating toughness is that the United States ignores UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's warning and the Arab world's mounting anti-US sentiment.

Second is the Iran issue. The Bush administration intends to use European countries' strengths to help stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. But on the other hand, Washington does not trust Europe's practices. Neo-conservatives of the Republican Party clearly point out: The Europeans will unavoidably adopt a more gentle way than we do, in an attempt to strike a deal with the Iranians, which is to our dissatisfaction. With regard to the compromise recently reached between Iran and the three countries of Germany, France and Britain, the American side holds that Europe has made too many concessions, and Iran asked too much. Generally, it hopes a tougher policy would be adopted. Sources say that the Bush administration is currently trying to persuade the IAEA (International Atom Energy Agency) before November 25 to submit a draft on sanction against Iran to the Security Council.

Third is the Israel and Palestine issue. Currently the United States is quietly watching the state of Araft's illness and change in Palestinian leadership, awaiting a chance to play a certain kind of role on the Palestine-Israel issue. But public opinion believes that US consistent pro-Israel policy will not change.

Fourth is the Korean Peninsular nuclear issue. During his Asian-nations tour before US election, Colin Powell clearly indicated: The post-election United States will not change its stance on the Korea issue, nor will it make concession. His assistant also indicates that no mater who will enter and host the White House after the presidential election, the Congress will ask the government to take a stronger stance toward Korea.

Briefly speaking, the foreign policy of Bush's new administration will become tougher, it requests its allies to adapt to its policy, but will its allies "be obedient to it"? Here reports say that along with the toughening US foreign policy, the rift between it and its allies will doubtlessly become increasingly large.

This article by PD reporter Liu Aicheng stationed in the United States was published on page 3 of this leading newspaper on November 11, 2004 and translated by People's Daily Online