A forecast made recently by a related work team on the nation's power market in the next three years shows: Contradiction between power supply and demand has somewhat alleviated in the fourth quarter and in 2005, but short supply of power as a whole remains. On the basis of sure implementation of the state macro-control policy, power supply and demand are expected to be balanced on the whole in 2006, with some regions still facing slight shortage of power, a basic balance between power supply and demand can be achieved in 2007.

The nation's general power shortage begins to be eased in the fourth quarter

Reports say that the economy will maintain a high growth in the next two years. It is estimated that the increase of the gross domestic product (GDP) will come to about 9.4 percent in 2004, and 8.5 percent to 9 percent in 2005, a slight decrease from the previous year. The heavy industry will maintain the robust development, but the gap between its growth and that of light industry will be notably narrowed. Particularly high energy-consuming industries will continue their rapid development, power consumed by ferrous metal, nonferrous metal and building material industries will grow by about 19 percent, the growth rate will fall to 12 percent-15 percent in 2005. The power elastic coefficient will gradually fall after a rise.

The control over power demand is realized mostly through the administrative means employed by government departments at various levels. The economic lever has not yet become the major regulatory means, and especially there is a lack of necessary economic policies and funds for support. If no effective incentive policies are adopted in 2005, then there will not be a big rise in the range of power load achieved through the control of power demand.

According to the above judgment and analysis and estimation, the total power consumption in the last quarter of 2004 will be 593.7 billion kilowatt hours, a 13.6 percent growth over the same period last year. And the total annual power consumption in 2004 will reach 2.165 trillion kilowatt hours, a 14.6 percent more than the net increase of 276 billion kilowatt hours in 2003. The power generation capacity in 2004 is estimated to be 500 billion kilowatts and the installed generating capacity will exceed 440 million kilowatts by the end of this year.

Under the condition of abundant power and coal supply, the power and quantity of electricity equilibrium analysis on the grids shows that the situation of power supply and demand in the fourth quarter this year has been eased up a little bit, but generally short supply still remains, particularly in some regions across the country. It is estimated that the national annual utilization units of thermal power generation equipment will exceed 6,000 hours. And the electric power equilibrium analysis on power grids indicates that the national power shortage in the fourth quarter this year reaches 10-13 million kilowatts, which occurs in east and north China and Sichuan Province. Additionally, the power shortage in south China is still serious.

Short power supply to be eased in 2005, power consumption still restricted in some areas

It is estimated that the total social consumption of electricity in 2005 will reach 2.382-2.468 trillion kilowatt hours, up 10 percent to 14 percent from the previous year. The recommended power consumption will be 2.425 trillion kilowatts, a net increase of 260 billion kilowatt hours, or up 12 percent from last year. According to a preliminary statistical analysis, the generating units put to operation in 2005 will have a capacity of 68.4 billion kilowatt hours, more than 23.8 million of which are in operation in the first half of this year, and the installed capacity is expected to exceed 510 million kilowatts by the yearend.

With the project going into operation on schedule and a better solution of the question regarding power and coal supply, national power shortages will be relatively eased, but some provincial grids still have to limit power consumption. The power supply and demand have the following main characteristics: Firstly, the scope of power shortage may be reduced, with less than 24 provincial grids applying the electric brake to restrict power consumption. Secondly, the degree of power shortage will be eased somewhat with the largest power deficiency ranging from 12-20 million kilowatts. Thirdly, the seasonal power shortage remains acute. Serious power shortages mainly occur in the first and the third quarters, with the deficiency ranging from 3-7 million kilowatts and 12-20 million kilowatts respectively. And fourthly, the supply of electricity and coal cannot be guaranteed, which will further intensify power shortage.

Balanced power supply and demand will be achieved in two years

Reports say, with the implementation of the state macro-control policy, power supply and demand are expected to become balanced as a whole in 2006, slight shortage will remain in some regions, a basic balance between supply and demand will be achieved in 2007. It is estimated that the increase of GDP in 2006 will range from 7.5 percent to 8.5 percent. The economic structure will be optimized and the growth of heavy industry will be higher than that of light industry, but the gap between the two will be gradually narrowed. The high energy-consuming industries will maintain a relatively high growth rate. The mix of products and output will be optimized and the energy-consuming level will continue to drop. Electricity elastic coefficient will fall after a rise, though it will still be higher than 1 in 2006, and it will be equivalent to 1 in 2007.

The national power consumption in 2006 is expected to hit 2.62-2.716 trillion kilowatts, up 8 percent to 12 percent from the previous year. The recommended power consumption will be 2.668 trillion kilowatts, up 10 percent. The estimated power consumption in 2007 will be 2.829 to 2.907 trillion kilowatts, up 6 percent to 9 percent. And the recommended power consumption will reach 2.869 trillion kilowatts, 7.5 percent higher than that of the previous year. Preliminary statistics show that the production capacity in 2006 will possibly exceed 79.5 million kilowatts and 54.2 million kilowatts in 2007.

Electricity and quantity of power equilibrium analysis of the grids based on the production scale and seasonal distribution demonstrate that power supply and demand will be balanced as a whole in 2006, but meanwhile the power shortage in some regions still exist. Provincial grids still have to resort to power cut to restrict power consumption seasonally and randomly. Currently, the situation of power shortages in some big grids will be eased notably and cases of restriction on power consumption will be reduced by a big margin. The largest power deficiency ranging from 6-10 million kilowatts is distributed mainly in east China and Chongqing Municipality.

According to the work team's prediction, the nation's power supply and demand will be basically balanced in 2007, and some grids in north and central China will have a slight surplus.

By People's Daily Online