Chinese consumer to displace US consumer by 2014

Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) said in a study that the Chinese consumers will likely have displaced the US consumers as the engine of the growth in the global economy by 2014.

The study, made by CSFB's global equity strategy team and released Wednesday, forecasts the US dollar value of Chinese consumption spending in 10 years will represent 37 percent of the U.S. and 11 percent of global consumption spending, versus 9 percent and 3 percent respectively in 2004.

For 2004, the CSFB estimates that the US dollar value of Chinese household consumption spending as 704 billion US dollars and the number is likely to increase to 3,726 billion US dollars in 2014.

The study also projects that there will be 151 million Chinese urban households earning more than 10,000 US dollars per year by 2014 versus 4 million at 2003 year end.

Honathan Garner, managing director and global co-ordinator of China Research at CSFB said "the rise of the Chinese consumers will present dramatically enhanced opportunities and challenges for consumer-facing companies worldwide over the next 10 years and beyond."

The study provides conclusions from a proprietary consumer survey based on interviews with 2,700 people in eight major Chinese cities in September, 2004. The survey collected individual and household data on a range of products and services as well as general information on income and attitudes.

The survey finds that average personal income has risen 24 percent in the last three years, most rapidly for younger people.