In 2004 China's economic and social development is the best in the past more than 10 years. China's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by about 9.5 per cent with the urban unemployment rate well controlled below 5 per cent and a big-margin increase for the farmers' income, which has not been seen for many years. The high-speed economic growth in China can be maintained for years to come if many issues in development can be well solved, said Li Peilin, deputy director with the Institute of Sociology under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences when he made a forecast for social development trends in 2005 in an interview.

When talking of the social trends in 2005 in China Li said there are mainly seven aspects. Firstly China's economy will continue to develop in high speed in 2005. Following two economic growth peaks in the middle of 1980s and early 1990s China's economy has entered into the third high-speed economic development period so far.

Secondly the transition period for entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) has ended and the reform of monopoly industries has reached the crucial point. By the end of 2004 China will have finished the three-year transition period since its entry into WTO. Most industries in China have ended their period for protective transitional measures. The reforms for monopoly industries are facing new challenges with profit-making industries of banks and autos bearing the brunt of challenges.

Thirdly the urbanization process will be further accelerated. The acceleration of China's urbanization has formed the main driving force for huge interests so far. Li said the key to the acceleration of urbanization lies on turning farmers into city residents, which accelerates the pace for balancing urban and rural development, breaks down and eliminates the urban and rural structures so that the basic driving force for China's economic development can be maintained.

Fourthly the aging problem becomes obvious. At present there are 130 million people aged at 60 or above. They account for about 10 per cent of the total population. And for the present only 25 per cent of the labor force in China enjoy endowment insurance to different degrees. The scale of families is getting smaller with great challenge to traditional family support of old age.

Fifthly the tension of labor relations will lead to false shortage for the supply of ordinary labor force. After income increase many farmers will make comparison. Although they earn less in rural areas than in cities they will face unemployment possibility or other threat.

Sixthly educational expenses for offspring will exert great influence on family expenditure. In recent years the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for the urban and rural residents in China and the average propensity to consume are in decline annually while the continuous increase of educational expenses has great enhanced the savings inclination for residents, influencing the household consumption trend for urban and rural residents.

Finally a greater difference will show in inter-generational value. The famous sociologist believes that it is very popular for the belief that economic status can change all. The old-generation habit of living frugally has been given way to the popular credit consumption pursued by the new generation, pushing forward the quiet advent of credit consumption age. In the mean time, the new generation is making the mainstream culture younger from fashion to popular songs, from TV to Internet, leisure life and social attitudes.

By People's Daily Online