An academic discussion on the "influence of Taiwan 'legislative committee' election on the political situation in Taiwan and the relations across the Straits" was held in the Taiwan Research Institute of Beijing Union University, according to the report of 13 December by the People's Daily Overseas Edition. Present at the seminar were scholars and experts on the Taiwan issues from more than 10 such units as: Taiwan Research Institution of the CAS, Research Office of All China Taiwanese Association, Research Institute of Military Academy of Sciences, Research Institute of International Affairs and Tsinghua University and Capital Normal University and some other units as well.

Influence of the election on the political situation in Taiwan

The result of the "legislative committee" election this time indicated that the pan-blue camp not in the office again took over half of the seats in the "Legislative Yuan" and so the situation in which the "minority is in the office and the majority not in the office" will continue to exist. So far as the People's Progressive Party is concerned none of the goals predicted by Chen Shui-bian before the election, such as "pan-green will get more than half of the seats; let votes to teach Lien and Soong a lesson, making them thoroughly marginalized and through the election to bleach the '3.19' gunshot case white and so on" has been realized, becoming the greatest setback he ever suffered since his sneaking into the power and the most direct influence is to land the political situation of the Island in a state of continuous vibration and unrest. The dream for an "all-round execution of power" by the PPP was thus shattered to pieces. Chen Shui-bian's administration will meet with forceful resistance from the pan-blue camp, which is in the majority in the "Legislative Yuan". Therefore, the antagonism between the blue and the green camps and the political unrest in the Island is hardly avoidable.

When analyzing the outcome of the election some experts expressed, the election result is an indication of the will of the people in the Island, namely to seek peace, stability, to oppose "Taiwan Independence" and maintain the present situation, which are still the mainstream of the will of the people in the Island and most of the people have got a further understanding of that the "Taiwan Independence" means war, turmoil and no stability whereas the authority of the PPP has mistakably overestimated the situation and the will of the people in the Island. Before the election Chen Shui-bian brought out a series of advocacies for a "rapid independence", for instance to "draw up a constitution by public ballot", change the "national emblem" and push forward the "verification of the name" and so on and so forth, and he even went as far as to say that "Sun Chung-shan was a foreigner"�� All these ways of doing are considered to "have gone too far", and so it has roused more dissatisfaction from among the masses of the people, therefore leading directly to the failure in the hot sale of "Taiwan Independence" by the pan-green camp.

Influence of the election on the cross-straits relations

Some experts are of opinion that the winning of over half the seats by the pan-blue camp in the election is beyond doubt of positive significance for the cross-straits relations. The pan-blue camp will continue to play a supervisory and controlling role in the "Legislative Yuan" over Chen Shui-bian's authority, forcing it to make some temporary adjustment in the handling of the relations across the Straits and so it maybe possible to make appear a short-time d��tente for the relations on the two sides of the Taiwan Straits.

However, some other experts stressed by saying that in the final analysis, though the pan-green camp suffered a defeat in the election the Chen Shui-bian authority as a ruling party still has power in hand while the pan-blue camp out of the office is still limited in its controlling power. In order to achieve its goal, the Chen Shui-bian authority can even make a detour away from the "Legislative Yuan" and continue to peddle its attempt for "Taiwan Independence" by exploiting its administrative resource in hand. Therefore, the over half of the seats won by the pan-blue camp is not powerful enough to make the Chen Shui-bian authority to draw in its horns. The perspective for the development of the cross-Straits relations can't be considered as sanguine nor will there be any substantial change to take place.

By People's Daily Online