Pressure on world crude prices, which had repeatedly pushed through new highs this year out of concerns over supply, would be eased next year, due to an anticipated slowdown of the global economy and lessened demand for oil supply, analysts said.

Admitting cheap oil has become "a thing of the past," analysts believed there are limited chances for crude prices to slip below 40 US dollars a barrel. However, they said crude prices next year will also be unlikely to stay as high as in this year.

Driven by the fast-growing world economy and hot demand for oil, world crude prices had been spiraling up all the way this year.

After reaching a ten-month high of more than 36 dollars a barrel on Jan. 10, crude went on to break 40 dollars a barrel on May 10, and pushed through 50 dollars a barrel in September. On Oct. 22 and Oct. 27, crude prices broke 55 dollars a barrel.

To contain crude price at a reasonable level, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had repeatedly raised its output since May and even pumped 30.61 million barrels a day in October, its highest daily production in 25 years.

However, though having nearly exhausted its spare oil production capacity, OPEC still failed to rein in the price, and, as a result, market confidence was severely hurt by OPEC's impotence of pumping enough oil to prop up the market.

Energy specialists voiced worries about OPEC's insufficient surplus production capacity, saying the "structure tightness" in supply could erode market confidence and spark panics when unexpected events happen.

"When you look at events back in the 90s and what was happening after Iraq invaded Kuwait, there was about 7 million barrels a day of spare oil production capacity in the OPEC countries," said Michael Rothman, a senior energy expert with Merril Lynch.

However, Rothman said, today there is only about 1 million barrels above normal in the OPEC countries. He warned that such a kind of "structure tightness" will add to market panic once there are unexpected events happening, leading to sharp rises in crude price.

In November, crude prices eventually somewhat bounced back. Analysts said increasing US oil inventories, more funds' flowing from oil to the stock market after George W. Bush's re-election victory, and an expected slowdown in the global economy combined have helped ease the pressure on world oil prices.

Looking to the 2005 crude market, analysts predicted that though cheap oil is impossible, crude prices may very possibly fluctuate between 40 and 50 dollars per barrel, considering demand, the impact of unexpected events, crude reserves and other factors key to the oil market.

"Cheap oil is a thing of the past, unless there is some major changes in the market. Thus even with Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq, settled oil prices are unlikely to go down to or below 40 dollars per barrel, " said senior US economist Ken Goldstein.

"My guess is 45 to 50 US dollars a barrel; I wouldn't rule out another trip into the 50-55 range, though if there is one, it will probably be brief," said Goldstein.

As OPEC's spare production capacity is limited, analysts said changes in supply-and-demand will be key to world oil prices.

Several international organizations have foreseen a slowdown of world economic growth in 2005, which is believed to be going to damp demand for crude and ease pressure on the prices.

According to OPEC's report in November, world demand would rise by 1.49 million barrels next year, sharply down from 2.5 million barrels a day this year. From the perspective of supply-and-demand,analysts said oil prices are unlikely to stay high next year.

The impact of unexpected events on world oil prices also should not be ignored, analysts said, citing "fear factor" over supplies could deal a heavy blow to the world crude market.

Goldstein believed any major break off in the oil supply chain will be devastating to world crude price.

However, he said, as the world economic growth is expected to slow down, OPEC will have a "higher" spare production capacity as compared with the lessened demand. And as a result, unexpected events will exert less impact on crude price as they did this year.

Changes in oil inventories in the United States, the world's number one oil consumer, will also be a decisive element to world oil prices. Analysts said after the winter heating season, oil inventories in the US will continuously increase and market confidence will be boosted, thus contributing to a lower crude price.

Another issue of concern to market analysts now is whether speculative activities next year will be as active as in this year. Some analysts said heavy speculative activities in the fall added at least 10 dollars a barrel to the price of oil.

However, specialists like Goldstein played down the role of market speculation, saying speculative forces on the market cannot fundamentally change the track of world oil prices.