Hong Kong's exports in 2005 will grow, but at a slower, sustainable pace, Assistant Chief Economist of The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (TDC) Daniel Poon said here Wednesday.

Holiday sales in Hong Kong's major overseas markets are always taken as an effective indicator in forecasting Hong Kong exports growth in next year, said Poon.

According to the TDC's Report on 2004 Christmas Sales in Major Overseas Markets released Wednesday, there will be a moderate growth in holiday sales in most of Hong Kong's major overseas markets.

In the United States, holiday sales are estimated to have expanded by around 3 percent this year, compared with a 5 percent growth last year. This may be due to increasing interest rates, slow income growth, high fuel costs and lack of must-have items, coupled with the modest discounts offered by retailers.

Hot sellers in the United States were home-related merchandise and consumer electronics, clothing and jewelry. The demand for toys was hindered by a lack of must-have items. Barbie and video games were the most popular toys.

In Europe, consumers were more timid spenders this holiday season, as high unemployment, soaring energy costs and low consumer confidence kept year-end spending in check.

Even in Britain, the star performer in the past few holiday seasons, consumer sentiment was affected by rising interest rates and slackening house prices. Festive spending is expected to have increased 3 percent.

In Germany, hot items were digital cameras, MP3 players, DVD players, plasma TVs, laptops and mobile phones.

Consumer electronics were also popular in France and Italy. However, year-end sales were not encouraging, though demand in France is stronger than elsewhere.

The report noted Japan's year-end sales expanded only moderately although the economy has been picking up. Consumers tended to be conservative as the ruling party plans to gradually abolish the temporary tax cuts introduced in 1999.

Source: Xinhua