The export price for China's metallurgic coke is expected to further increase this year, as a result of the country's reduced coke exports and continued demand from the international market, especially from the United States, Japan and the European Union (EU).

Sources from China Coal and Coke Holdings recently predicted the trend, projecting a price hovering around US$260 per ton for China's metallurgic coke exports this year.

The country's coke exporting price stood at US$210 to US$230 in the fourth quarter of last year, according to industry sources.

The Chinese Government has set a quota of 14 million tons for coke exports in 2005, down 1 million tons from the 2004 figure.

A total of 48 manufacturing and trade companies have been granted licenses for exporting coke, said the government regulation.

China exported 15.01 million tons of metallurgic coke in 2004, a year-on-year increase of 1.97 per cent from 2003, according to Chinese customs statistics.

Most of this was shipped from Tianjin in northern China, accounting for 13.2 million tons, or 87.67 per cent of the country's total, and the FOB (Free on Board) price at the port averaged US$261 per ton.

China Coal Industry Association Vice-President Zhu Deren attributed China's reduced coke exports to the country's soaring demand for coke in the steel industry and the heavy environmental pollution resulting from coke production.

"In the first place, China's coke production should satisfy domestic demand," said Zhu, who is also a member of International Committee for Coal Research.

"Besides, over-expansion of coke production is detrimental to China's long-term sustainable development, as coke production causes grave environmental pollution," added Zhu.

China's coke turnover this year is expected to top 215 million tons, a 10 per cent growth from the estimated 195 million tons in 2004, according to industry statistics.

The country's coke production in 2004 accounted for nearly half of the global coke supply, said industry sources.

China's coke consumption will shoot up to 207 million tons in 2005, a reflection of demand from the steel industry, exports and other industries such as petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals and mechanical manufacturing.

On top of China's reduced coke exports, another factor that may account for the expected price hike in China's coke exports this year is the mounting demand for coke from the international market.

The global iron and steel industry devoured at least 345 million tons of coke in 2004, an increase of 28.2 million tons from 2003, according to figures from the International Iron and Steel Institute.

The world's steel production - the major consumer of coke - will expand to 1.12 billion tons this year, indicating a demand for no less than 365 million tons of metallurgic coke, according to the institute.

The expected coke demand in 2005 from the international market, as the figures show, presents a year-on-year jump of 20 million tons.

For the first 11 months of 2004, China's coke exports mainly targeted the European Union, Japan, Brazil, the United States and India, which accounted for 83.1 per cent of China's aggregated exports, according to statistics from Chinese customs.

Compared with the same period in 2003, many countries and regions had witnessed a declining supply of coke from China, except a 72.5 per cent increase to the United States and a 23.2 per cent rise to Japan.

An industry insider from China Coal and Coke Holdings said the skyrocketing price largely drove Chinese coke producers to sell their coke to US buyers.

"The export price to the United States once stood at US$360 per ton, almost US$100 higher than those to EU," said Du.

In the light of China's reduced coke exports this year, many of the world's large coke consumers have begun considering alternatives to fill the gap.

Countries including Japan, the United States, India and Brazil are strengthening efforts in extending their own coke production capacities, said Du.

And member nations of the European Union have increased their coke imports from Poland, Ukraine and the Czech Republic since last year.

Source: China Daily