World oil consumption is expected to grow robustly in the decades ahead fed by improving standards of living in developing countries and a jump in automobile ownership, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday.
Raghuram Rajan, chief economist of the IMF said in a briefing that world demand for oil is projected to surge from around 82.4 million barrels a day in 2004 to 138.5 million by 2030 and it will probably keep prices high.
China alone will contribute almost one-quarter of the increase in demand because of the country's fast economic growth and large population, he said.
By 2030, world oil prices are expected to range anywhere from 39 dollars to 56 dollars a barrel, adjusted for inflation.
"The oil market will remain tight in coming years," Rajan said, "We should expect to live with high and volatile oil prices, which will continue to pose a risk to the global economy."
Spare oil production capacity will remain low, he said. That, along with strong demand, will keep supplies tight. Thus, any unexpected supply disruption or change in demand could lead to gyrating prices. "To the extent that there is some kind of supply disruption, 100 dollars a barrel does not seem outlandish," he said.