The objective effect of Lien-Soong mainland visits can be said that the result outweighs anticipation as far as various quarters on both sides of the Straits are concerned. Regarding this, scholars have different views, different interpretations and different positioning. Observed from the perspective of history and development, it is undeniable that the Lien-Soong mainland visits have objectively brought about three changes in cross-Strait relations.

What do three changes mean?

First is the change of cross-Strait political relations from long-term hesitation and obscurity to the stage of seeking common ground while reserving differences and engaging in communication and dialog. Lien Chan and James Soong Chu-yu attracted the eyes of the Island and the whole world as they set foot on the mainland, opened the door to cross-Strait political communication and enabled people to see with their own eyes and feel the possibility for communication, communication contains many advantages. This actually indicates that cross-Strait relations have begun to enter a new stage of an all-round exclusion of "Taiwan independence" in the economic, political, cultural and psychological fields.

Second is the change of cross-Strait united front against "independence", which has been in operation for many years, from covert and contraction to the expanding stage of manifestation and stability. It contains both open and rational pattern--interaction between political parties and substantive contents--the news communiqu�� on Hu Jintao-Lien Chan talks and the communiqu�� on Hu Jintao-James Soong talks. This change implies that cross-Strait ties have begun to enter a period of relative security. The Lien-Soong mainland visits realized a historic leap, the top-level leaders of the Kuomintang Party (KMT), the People First Party (PFP) and the Communist Party (CPC), in the face of all Chinese at home and abroad and the international community, openly had handshakes and stood shoulder to shoulder, standing together in an open and aboveboard, and magnanimous manner in their efforts against "independence" and for reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This actually declares that the "pro-communist and betraying Taiwan" card in "Taiwan independence" elements' hands has henceforth become ineffective. The two communiqu��s are open and transparent, they both connect the bonds of consensus and mutual trust between the KMT and the CPC, between the PFP and the CPC, and between the KMT and the PFP, and open an unimpeded channel for this united front.

Third is the change of the green and blue camps in a state of "one falling and the other rising" in terms of their condition of survival and dominant power over popular will. It must be admitted that the stability and growth in strength of the blue camp in the Island has a direct bearing on the role of the "mainland card" in the Island, and bears on the future of cross-Strait relations.

The rise of a new inspiring situation

From a historical perspective, Lien Chan's move of determinedly making an ice-breaking tour to the mainland at the invitation of Hu Jintao is quite similar to Dr. Sun Yat-sen's move of resolutely uniting with the CPC in those years. Firstly, both were forced to make a choice of seeking a source of life from outside when their external struggles suffered desperate setbacks and their internal ranks contracted with desperate illnesses; secondly, a mainland tour is the best medicine for getting rid of danger, a handshake between both parties immediately gave rise to a new inspiring situation--a great boost to morale, an enormous increase in bravery and strength, a restoration of oneself and a surge of people's aspirations; thirdly, the change in the mental outlook of the KMT and the recollection of popular morale have enabled the blue camp with the KMT at the core to turn from a situation of disintegration and crumble back to the state of integration. Stimulated by Lien Chan's mainland visit, James Soong followed on the heels of Lien, really feeling the inseparable party ties with the blue camp and again seeing the broad political stage and political future of cooperation with the blue camp, thus strengthening the general situation of cooperation between the KMT and the PFP. Lien Chan's action shows that the KMT still has the inherent vitality of self-transformation and seeking survival from away a dead position.

Another aspect of the blue camp that makes it turn from danger to safety is the unprecedented crisis of disintegration facing the blue camp, and the crises facing the administration of the ruling party and the ruler. Viewed from the balance of reunification and "independence", this is an inexorable situation. Viewed from the direction of real popular will in the Island over the past half month, a poll shows that the rate of popular support for the KMT and the PFP and Lien Chan and James Soong is rising while that for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Chen Shui-bian is plummeting, both reaching a new point in history. Obviously, under the "Taiwan independence" idea, it is impossible for Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, however clever, to find a recipe for saving them from the declining tendency. It is all the more obvious that Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, for their personal grievances, can hardly stay in one and the same camp, so the break-up and regrouping of the green camp has become inevitable.

Can a painful transformation be accomplished?

What is the tendency of such regrouping? The success of Lien-Soong mainland visits has brought to the ruling party and the ruler crisis pressure, as well as motive force and attractive force for relieving pressure. Or to put it more clearly, such crisis is latent with a favorable turn as expected by various sides. Under such a circumstance it is imperative for the DPP and Chen Shui-bian to take a turn toward establishing links with the mainland. The seemingly "incoherent" and "baseless nervous" words uttered by Chen Shui-bian are actually an inevitable expression of embarkation on the road to communication, which he made under a complex environment and a complicated mindset. In the atmosphere of the successful mainland tours made by Lien Chan and James Soong, Chen Shui-bian, on an occasion outside the Island, gave the accompanying reporters the following expressions when he said: "Now comes the opportunity, the mainland visits paid by Lien Chan and James Soong today are only a prelude, the main play has not come on stage, the wonderful and important part of the play is yet to come. When will the play be seen? This depends on the common efforts to be made by various sides, including Ah Bian himself". Such expressions cannot but be regarded as his cognition and expectation of the way he will follow. After his return to Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian, in the face of violent inner-party criticisms at the airport, made the statement: I am "crystal clear that the 'conciliation between those in power and those out of power' and 'peace on the two sides of the Straits' are the two crucial historical factors determining whether or not our descendants can grow under an environment of peace, stability and security in the coming decades." This is by no means an empty statement.

The continued development of the current situation can only have two results: one is that the Taiwan Solidarity Union becomes the "urgent independence" core which shares life and death, and advances and retreats together with Lee Teng-hui, losing its previous influence on the government; the DPP, led by Chen Shui-bian, will break away from "urgent independence" and change to a party of the entire people, on the pragmatic middle road, it will build its own political life; the other is that, Chen Shui-bian, under the pressure and attractive force of various sides, will be forced to quit the party and seek control over the whole situation. Of the two results, the former has bigger possibility. As to the DPP, from its ascendant to the ruling position, there has been the thinking of shedding the "Taiwan independence" burden and bringing about a pragmatic change; as far as Chen Shui-bian is concerned, from the day when he became the DPP leader and shouldered up the banner of the "Republic of China", he has been faced with the problem of how to lay down the cross and seek survival and to acquire political development. Therefore, it is possible that he would take advantage of this opportunity to complete a painful transformation.

The author, Ma Shuming, is associate professor with the Institute of Taiwan Studies under Beijing United University