News Analysis: Hamas and Fatah to grapple after Israeli Gaza pullout

The Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and the dominant Fatah movement now led by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas are set to vie for power after the Israeli Gaza pullout due to start in mid August, analysts said.

Although Abbas managed last week to win Hamas's fresh commitment to the truce with Israel avoiding a showdown due to disputes on elections and domestic policies, analysts said an upgraded competition between the Islamic group and Fatah seems inevitable after the coming Israeli evacuation.

Nahedd Abu Bilal, a Gaza-based Palestinian analyst specializing in Islamic studies, said Hamas is rapidly growing at the expense of Fatah, the backbone of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA).

"The Hamas of 2005 is quite different from the Hamas before the Palestinian Intifada (uprising) that broke out in 2000," he said.

"The PNA was able to crack down on Hamas before the Intifada because Hamas was not as strong as it is nowadays, but the PNA has been exhausted during over four years of violence with Israel while Hamas has become stronger with a wider support in the Palestinians," he added.

Tensions between Hamas and Fatah have been tightened since disputes erupted over results of the May municipal elections and the postponement of the legislative elections originally scheduled on July 17.

Palestinian courts invalidated election results in three Gaza towns where Hamas claimed victory but Fatah complained about irregularities.

An Egyptian delegation sponsored an intensive marathon dialogue in Gaza between the two groups and managed to freeze the disputes, but failed to settle the issue.

Analysts said the new flare-up of disputes is unlikely to result in face-to-face confrontations between the two, but the time for grapple will come after the Israeli Gaza pullout.

"The time now is not yet ripe for any physical confrontations between Fatah and Hamas since there is a third stage of municipal elections and the two have to agree on a new date for the legislative race," said Siham Abu el-Halawa, a female Palestinian professor of political science in Gaza.

"The time of fighting between the two movements will come especially after the expected Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank," she added.

"Hamas, with arms and popularity, will seek its share after its militants fought the Israeli occupation for years," Halawa went on.

Hamas is furious over Abbas's decision earlier this month to postpone the Palestinian legislative elections, in which it has been expected to mount a serious challenge to Fatah's dominance in the parliament.

Hamas wanted the elections to be held on time, believing that a ballot before the implementation of the Israeli disengagement plan would give the group a better chance to win and defeat Fatah.

With the postponement of the elections till after the Israeli pullout, Fatah will gain a vantage in the race, deeming the Israeli evacuation as its major achievement.

On top of that, Abbas will try to avoid giving Israel any excuse to delay or abort the pullout, which the Palestinian side insists is the first step of the road map peace plan.

"If elections were held on time before the Israeli withdrawal and Hamas won, then Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon would make it an excuse to reconsider the implementation of his disengagement plan," said Bilal.

A senior Palestinian security official speaking on condition of anonymity, expected that Israel might launch a massive offensive against Hamas shortly before, during or immediately after the pullout from Gaza and parts of the West Bank.

"Hamas will be reduced weak after the Israeli strike and at the same time the PNA takes complete control of Gaza and the West Bank and Hamas will lose a great amount of its support among the Palestinians," he added.

"With the parliamentary elections held after the withdrawal, Hamas will lose the momentum to achieve any great victory in the elections," he concluded.

Asserting that the Palestinian security forces can crack down on Hamas as well as other militant groups, the official said the PNA is only not interested in doing so under current circumstances to fend off national strife.

Hamas, an acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and meaning " zeal" in Arabic, emerged in the first Palestinian uprising in 1987.

Spearheading attacks on Israel during the past four and a half years' uprising and running a wide charity network, it has grown into the largest Palestinian Islamic group with huge street popularity.

With a strong performance in the first two rounds of Palestinian municipal elections and distinct from the corruption-smeared image of Fatah, Hamas is posed to garner big victory in its first legislative election bid.

Some Palestinian analysts even envision a new cabinet headed by Hamas. The group is also tipped to plan to open talks with Europe and the United States.

Mohamed Ghazzal, a senior Hamas leader in the West Bank, has declared that no one can reach an agreement with the Palestinian people without the support of Hamas.

He said the group has no problem holding contacts with the United States or any European country. But the group denied having already started talks with Washington and Europe.

Source: Xinhua