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Home >> World
UPDATED: 08:00, June 16, 2005
Analysis: Upcoming EU summit to decide fate of EU Constitution
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As the French and Dutch "no" to the European Union (EU) Constitution has plunged the bloc into an unprecedented crisis. The upcoming EU summit, to be held on June 16-17, is destined to decide the fate of the charter.

It is well-known that the French and Dutch consecutive rejections of the EU charter within three days of each other have triggered a domino effect across Europe.

On June 6, Britain announced its plan to postpone its referendum over the charter which would have been held in early 2006, dealing another blow to the EU Constitution which was finalized after 3 years of tough talks among EU members.

Surveys show that support for the "yes" camp for the EU charter is decreasing in Denmark and Luxembourg, both of which insist on holding a popular vote on the charter in September and July respectively.

Adding to the problem, the EU has to deal with a possible " legal vacancy," if the Constitution continues to be vetoed.

One typical example is that preparation work for the EU Foreign Ministry, also known as the EU External Action Service in EU jargon, has been stopped although the EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana demanded the preparation should go on.

"Our meeting comes at a difficult moment in the construction of Europe," said Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who is to chair the two-day summit, in the invitation to other EU leaders.

According to the agenda arranged by Luxembourg, which currently holds the EU presidency, June 16 will be dedicated to resolving the ratification crisis of the EU charter, and a joint declaration would be adopted if possible.

Facing a tough job, the EU leaders will have to make a choice which would exert a significant impact on Europe's road to integration.

Media and experts based in Brussels have prescribed some options for the leaders to consider:

-- to declare the charter dead. The EU would then continue to function on the basis of the Nice Treaty.

The move would render three years of hard talks useless and imply an impasse for the European political integration.

"If the constitution was abandoned, it would take another 15 years before the EU could negotiate another treaty," said Juncker after the French veto.

-- to wait and see. Declaration 30 attached to the charter stipulates that after 20 EU member states successfully ratify the treaty, EU leaders can discuss ways to save the document.

Some EU leaders like Juncker and French President Jacques Chirac have made the call to continue the ratification process. If at least 20 member states ratify the charter, legally the EU leaders have enough backing to try to salvage the constitution.

However, according to the charter, if six or more EU countries say "no," the charter will automatically be dead. There would be no legal basis for the EU leaders continue discussing the charter.

-- to cool off. Since the rejection mood might spread all over Europe, it may be better to put the charter aside for a certain period of time for reflection. In this case, the implementation date of the charter would be postponed.

Luxembourg Senior Foreign Minister Nicolas Schmit revealed on Tuesday that the Luxembourg presidency might table this option in the upcoming EU summit.

-- to save what you can. According to the Brussels-based weekly magazine European Voice, the EU leaders could also ditch the constitution, but recover those elements from the document which they all agree with and which do not require ratification by the member states.

In this case, "the election of a president of the European Council, or the creation of an EU external action service are such elements that could be salvaged," said the weekly.

However, it admits that this option is "very difficult to defend politically," for it would be "like a backdoor adoption of the EU constitution."

Whatever option the EU summit might choose, the EU leaders have to consider public opinion.

One lesson the EU has drawn from the French and Dutch "no" is that much work has to be done to improve communication between the leadership and the general public.

"The citizens of Europe will be paying particular attention to our discussions and will be expecting answers and action from us," said Juncker in the invitation letter.

Source: Xinhua


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