Nobel Laureate says China's economy to keep growing by 8 pct annually

Nobel Prize laureate Robert Fogel is optimistic about China's sustained economic growth, giving a prediction of at least 8 percent annually in the coming 35 years.

"China is likely to grow in GDP at 8 percent per annum or more for at least a generation, that is to 2040, and perhaps beyond that date," said Fogel, director of Center for Population Economics of the University of Chicago, during the 2005 Annual Conference of the Chinese Economists Society, a three-day event that ended in southwest China's Chongqing Municipality on Sunday.

The 1993 Nobel Economics Prize winner said China's goal to achieve 3,000 US dollars of per capita GDP in 2020 is rational, and dismissed skepticism over China's robust economic growth.

The target set by the Chinese leadership is well within the experience of the rapidly growing Southeast Asian economies, he added.

Contrary to suspicions over the possible overstatement of China's growth rate due to exaggerated reports from some localities, Fogel said the actual growth of the Chinese economy in general has been rather "understated," particularly in the service sector.

China's education and health sectors, for example, are contributing tremendously to its economic growth, but have not been calculated into the country's GDP growth, he said.

Fogel also noticed some potential impediments to China's sustained economic growth -- staggering amount of non-performing loan, underperforming state firms, pollution and water shortage, among others. "Although I recognize the importance of these issues, I shall not dwell on them," he said, "I view them as issues that need to be addressed during the course of economic growth and I believe that they will be addressed."

The rapid development of state-of-the-art technologies and a foreseeable surge in capital investment in the coming decades will also help China achieve its growth target, he added.

Source: Xinhua