China Aviation Industry Corporation I (AVIC I) Thursday issued its forecast for China's aviation market from 2005 to 2024, putting the annual growth rate at 8.4 percent.

According to the forecast, along with the continuous growth of the economy, the fast growth of tourism and Chinese foreign trade, and deepening of civil aviation reform, the future air transport market will also increase at a high speed. It forecasted that from 2005 to 2024, passenger turnover would increase by 8.4 percent annually, and would reach 890.2 billion person-kilometers in the year 2024. Cargo/post turnover would increase even more by 11 percent annually and reach 57.9 billion ton-kilometers.

The rapid growth of Chinese air transportation market has brought a great demand for aircraft. It is forecasted that in 2024, China will have 3,165 civil aircraft, including 1,896 large passenger planes, 821 regional planes, and 448 freighters. The regional aircraft fleet under 100 seats will increase to 754 units.

Taking into consideration the market demand required by the increasing transport volume and the retirement of existing aircraft, 2,541 aircraft will be needed for replacement of existing fleet in the next twenty years. Among those are 77 units of 400 seaters, 250 units of 300 seaters, 338 units of 200 seaters, 802 units of 150 seaters, 276 units of 110 seaters and 798 units of regional aircraft.

Promoted by the rapid GDP growth, higher level of consumption, and air deregulation in China, China's air traffic grows at a much faster speed than the average level of the world and the position of the industry has been improved within the global transportation system.

The total turnover for 2004 and passenger turnover and the cargo/post turnover have risen respectively to the world's third ranking, at a growth rate of 35 percent, 41 percent and 24 percent as compared with the previous year.

Source: Xinhua