The US woos and guards against Japan

Elevation of Japan's position in US East Asian strategy

Bush's circumstance is just opposite to that of Koizumi's, his foreign policy is being increasingly restrained by domestic political factors. Due to the persistent turbulence of the situation in Iraq, the voice against the Iraq war is getting ever louder in the United States. The serious losses caused by the recent hurricane Katrina mean a worsened straitened circumstance for Bush, the rate of public support to him has fallen to a record low since his assumption of office.

Decline in the rate of domestic support has made it hard for Bush to push his diplomatic proposition as he did in the past. Viewed from US diplomatic history after World War II, the more the administrative authority is diplomatically subjected to domestic restriction, the more attention and emphasis it will place on relations with its allies externally. It is thus clear that the disadvantaged circumstance of Bush in domestic politics has made his diplomatic ability fall short of his wishes. Specifically, in pushing its East Asian strategy, the US demand on Japan will increase, US-Japanese relations will thus possibly be further strengthened and Japan's status in US East Asian strategy will go up accordingly.

There is much coincidence in US-Japan East Asian strategy

In the eyes of the United States, this goal of its East Asian strategy is faced with three challenges: the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, the situation in the Taiwan Straits and the rising of China, of which China's rising is the most principal one. The United States therefore has doubts and misgivings about the direction of China's development, thinking that China is at the crossroads, and it is not yet clear whether China is enemy or friend and so preparation is needed to guard against it.

Japan has much coincidence with the United States in its strategic interests in the East Asian region. Its East Asian strategy can be simply summed up as "one center" and "two main points".

"One center" means seeking to further enhance its own influence in this region, first is to realize its political rise in Asia. "Two main points" is to "prevent military threat from directly encroaching upon Japan"; second is to establish a "good and harmonious international environment".

In the eyes of Japan, China's rise, the Korean nuclear issue and the Taiwan Strait situation are the main "security threat" to it, Japan is particularly worried that China's rising would become an obstacle to "Japan's rise". Based on the Japan-US security protection treaty, strengthening Japan-US military alliance is a practical means for offsetting the ascendance of China's influence, weakening this obstacle and maintaining a "good international environment".

Proceeding from this general situation, diplomatically Japan assumes a "willingness" posture, it nods "yes" to the United States, accepts the situation in which "the US is the principal and Japan the subordinate", and follows the US policy. Japan lacks reflection on the question of history, resulting in a "politically chill" situation in Sino-Japanese relations. In appearance, there are the factors of the two countries having different cultural backgrounds, but it reflects more of the fact that faced with the growth and decline of the two countries' influences in East Asia, Japan mentally finds it hard to accept this situation.

By taking an uncompromising attitude toward China and sticking stubbornly to its own view, Japan has discharged its psychological "humiliation and burden" brought about by its following the United States. And by playing up China's exploitation of oil and gas in the East China Sea and other related questions, Japan has, to some degree, found an excuse for its rigid policy toward China. At the same time, Japan's proposal for setting up an "East Asia community" and its call for East Asian countries' "coexistence and common prosperity" are aimed more at balancing China's ever-closer relations with Southeast Asian countries, and competing with China in the aspect of political influence.

Facing the fact of China's irresistible mounting influence, Japan spares no effort to fuss about the Taiwan issue toward which it previously took a prudent attitude. Early this year the US-Japan "2+2" conference openly stated that the two countries were concerned about the Taiwan Strait situation. Considering that previously Japan had long been unwilling to express its attitude on this issue, America's other Asian allies do not want to get involved in the matter, Japan's statement appears to be extraordinary. Japan's two-sided diplomacy toward the United States and toward China has resulted in US-Japan relations being in "the best period of history", while Sino-Japanese ties being plunged into a slump since the normalization of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Japan and the United States have some common interests in coping with China's rising, at the same time, the two countries have same political systems and "freedom", "democracy" and concepts of values are similar. Therefore, in the words of the United States, on the question of attitude toward China, US-Japan relations are favorable both to "freedom" and to a "balance of strengths". For the United States, Japan is a counterweight for it to balance China's influence; in the eyes of Japan, the United States provides a backing for it to cope with China's rising influence. Both sides regard US-Japan relations as a cornerstone for their own East Asian strategies.

US also possibly needs to balance Japan's influence by developing Sino-US Ties

In recent years, Japan has cherished an ever-stronger wish for a political rise, under the circumstances of a rate of internal public support and externally an increasing American need, Koizumi's "social status" is rising, and there exists the possibility for him to shake off American control, set up Japan's own international "coordinate", and pursue diplomatic independence.

Japan has long been a big economic power, and now is seeking the status of being a big political and military power. But judged from its domestic political development trend, the development direction after it becomes a big political power is still uncertain. If Japan can properly handle its relations with other Asian neighboring countries, then it can become an active force promoting East Asian cooperation, but if it stubbornly sticks to the Right-deviation road, there will be a possibility for it to bring hidden peril to East Asian stability.

In terms of the latter possibility, the United States strengthens its military ties with Japan, and at the same time makes it impossible for Japan to achieve its intention of independently developing its armament under the pretext of guarding against China. For this reason, US-Japan alliance also functions to restrain Japan from once again heading for militarism.

What is most important in US East Asian strategy is to guarantee its leading power while maintaining East Asian stability in its favor, while Japan's Right deviation will bring tremendous negative influence on the East Asian situation, this runs counter to the initial intention of US strategy for maintaining US-Japan alliance.

In the meantime, in order to prevent a decline in the force for controlling Japan, the United States also possibly needs to balance Japan's influence through developing Sino-US relations and other diplomatic measures. To this end, the United States attaches importance to Sino-US cooperation, but this does not rule out the possibility of its attempt to maintain its active position in the East Asian region through creating a "balance" between China and Japan.

This article, written by Li Xiaogang, director of the Diplomacy Office of the Institute for US Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is published on the Global Times September 21 and translated by People's Daily Online