World cereal production in 2005 is forecast at 1,984 million tons, slightly down from the previous forecast and 3.4 percent less than 2004's record output, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Thursday.

"With this revision, the shortfall in production compared to the expected utilization in 2005-2006 has grown, and a larger drawdown in global cereal stocks is now forecast," the FAO's Food Outlook report said.

World cereal utilization is forecast to reach 2,015 million tons in 2005-2006, up 10 million tons from the estimated level in 2004-2005. Total cereal food consumption is forecast at 983 million tons, up 1.3 percent from 2004-2005, with most of the increase expected in developing countries.

The FAO said that most of the anticipated decrease in global cereal output in 2005 is in developed countries, mainly reflecting smaller coarse grain crops. In the United States, adverse hot and dry weather for the maize crop was responsible for most of the downward adjustment for coarse grains. Drought also hit crops in some European Union countries.

In developing countries, production is expected to be up marginally from the good level of 2004, mostly on account of better crops in several Asian countries.

Regarding world cereal trade in 2005-2006, the report said it could reach nearly 236 million tons, 3 percent down from the 2004-2005 volume, mainly reflecting good crops in some of the main importing countries.

The meat market has been recovering from the wave of disruption caused by animal disease problems in 2004. Meat production is forecast to grow by 2.5 percent in 2005, with nearly 80 percent of the growth expected in developing countries, the FAO said.

The FAO Commodities and Trade Division publishes the Food Outlook four times a year as part of the Global Information and Early Warning System.

Source: Xinhua