"The consumer market in China will have a growth rate of 18 per cent annually to reach the second position globally'', pointed out Jonathan Garner, managing director with Credit Suisse First Boston Corp in a recent exclusive interview with Wei Rongzhi, a reporter with the International Finance News, according to the paper on October 21.

He said in the coming 10 years, the consumer market will be in fast growth. Consumption enhancement and stable increase of foreign exchanges will bring an annual growth rate of 18 per cent to the country's consumer market calculated in US dollar. The growth rate will persist for a comparatively long period of time. By 2014, the proportion of the consumer market will reach 11 per cent in the global total, second only to the United States, while in 2004 China was only ranked the seventh with the share of only 3 per cent.

At present, China is trying to make its economic growth pattern change from simply export-driven to export and domestic demand-driven. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said on many occasions that encouraging domestic demand is the best way to reduce trade surpluses. For the present, domestic demand should be boosted to cut savings so as to let Chinese factories sell more products on home market.

Nevertheless, the savings rate in the country is still running high. Credit Suisse First Boston believes that China has some difficulties in bringing down savings rate before perfecting its social security system and reducing people's difficulties in medical care. However, with the improvement of people's income and the rapid expansion of consumer loans, the savings rate will slow down. This will push forward consumption growth.

If the consumer market can really reach Garner's prediction, it will not only change the country's economic growth model, but also the situation of the global consumer market. Garner said China's present consumption accounts for about 44 per cent of China's GDP. In 10 years, it will be up to about 50 per cent. The expansion of the consumer market will be of far-reaching significance to the global consumer producers. China will become a hot land for the manufacturers' competition. As a matter of fact, the sign has started to appear.

By People's Daily Online