Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi recently reshuffled his cabinet, which has aroused wide attention from public opinion of various countries. In the eyes of this writer, associated researcher of the Japan Office of the Institute of China Modern International Relations, the political strategy of Koizumi's personnel placement, when reflected in Japan's relationship with China, carries the formatting risk of the so-called "cold politics and hot economy" situation, and embodies Koizumi's "strategic nearsightedness".

In the recent cabinet reshuffle, Koizumi promoted Shinzo Abe, former acting director-general of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), who actively follows the Prime Minister to visit the Yasukuni Shrine and stands for imposing economic sanction on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), to the post of Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary, at the same time, the prime minister transferred Taro Aso, an exponent of "recognition of history" and former minister in charge of general affairs, to the post of foreign minister. Against the backdrop of "cold" Sino-Japanese political relationship, Koizumi's appointment of hawks to key posts makes people worry that Sino-Japanese "cold political relationship" perhaps would become more clarified.

On the other hand, Koizumi promoted Toshihiro Nikai to the post of economic industry minister in charge of foreign economic relations. Since the beginning of this year, Nikai has gained profound confidence for engineering "the dissolution of postal service", helping Koizumi to rid of dissidents and win in the general election. In the new cabinet, Nikai is among the few members with good relations of exchange with China. Koizumi hopes to open the door of harmonizing Sino-Japanese economic policies by aid of Nikai's special relationship with China, and further increase the degree of "economic heat", so as to create a good environment for Japan's technology and financial capital to continue to enter the Chinese market.

In the general election, the LDP clearly put forward the "electronic-Japan strategy" and the "financial service industry national building strategy" which won widespread support from the economic circles, and none of these two major strategies can do without the Chinese market, particularly the characteristics of information technology and the financial industry itself determine that Japan's market accession must be based on the harmony of its related policies. Koizumi took a fancy to Nikai, thinking that the latter could help him save political cost. Obviously, Koizumi lacks sufficient strategic farsightedness. Just as economic revitalization needs the payment of cost, so improving relations with China also requires the payment of necessary political cost.

Indeed, Sino-Japanese economic and trading ties have so far been developing smoothly, and interdependence has been deepened, that is the present foundation for building friendly relations between the two countries, and Koizumi takes this as an excuse for his assertion that "China-Japan relationship remains normal". In the eyes of Koizumi, China's economic development needs Japanese investment, especially Japan's export market. In the structure of processing trade, China's industrial rejuvenation cannot do without Japan's equipment and components, etc. Given this, Koizumi holds that there is no need to pay political cost for improving Sino-Japanese relations, maintaining the status quo conforms to the principle of "mercantilism".

The recent situation has undergone tremendous change. The United States has begun to pay greater attention to China-Japan relations, calling on Japan to strengthen dialogs with its Asian neighbors to avoid that deteriorating relations affect US interests in East Asia. Koizumi's "Yasukuni Shrine card" has created an opportunity for America to take a hand in Japan-China relations, thus depriving Japan of its initiative to independently improve Japan-China ties.

US President Richard Nixon's sudden visit to China in 1972, practicing an "overtop diplomacy" toward Japan, causing a "strong earthquake" in Japan's political circles and landing the country in passivity in its diplomatic relations with China. To date, Koizumi again provides America with an opportunity for practicing "overtop diplomacy". US involvement in Sino-Japanese relations will help enlarge Japan's image as a "little partner", under such circumstances, how will Japan pursue its "dominant" position in East Asia perhaps is a problem that causes Koizumi and his successor to feel very much embarrassed.

Another important fact is: Whether it is East Asian cooperation, or the entry of Japan's capital and technology into the Chinese market, needs to take policy coordination as the prerequisite and foundation. For this reason, establishing a good policy harmonious relationship with China bears on Japan's economic prosperity or depression and on the success or failure of its Asian strategy, this, naturally, also needs a mild political climate.

The only wise practical choice for Koizumi's new cabinet is to earnestly present its sincerity and measures, and to pay "cost" in return for "profit".

This article is published on the third page of People's Daily November 14 and translated by People's Daily Online