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Home >> Opinion
UPDATED: 16:20, May 23, 2006
News analysis: Montenegro's independence drive
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After 88 years under the shadow of Serbia, Montenegro voted for independence by a slim majority according to its initial referendum results on Monday.

With 55.4 percent of voters supporting the drive for separation, the 55-percent threshold was only just achieved to leave the state union of Serbia and Montenegro.

To many citizens of the tiny mountainous state, which was unified with Serbia in 1918, there are many causes for the separation, including the differences in population makeup and territory division, perceived inefficiency of the loose union, and setbacks to its European Union (EU) and NATO ambitions.

With the imbalance in territory size, population and economic structure, many of the 620,000 Montenegrins saw themselves as being dominated by Serbia, which has an eight-million strong population. The thought of leaving the union has gradually evolved.

From 1997, the call for independence surged in Montenegro, and an EU-brokered constitutional deal in 2002 provided the legal basis for a national vote. The deal allowed both Montenegro and Serbia to organize independence referendums after three years of probation

Serbia-Montenegro, which was renamed from the Yugoslav federal republic in February 2003, is a loose union with only limited ministries of foreign affairs, defense and human rights. The two republics have different laws, customs, currencies and border services. The union was considered inefficient from its creation.

Another reason for the breakup, analysts have said, was that many people in Montenegro believed the republic's EU and NATO membership ambitions were hindered by Serbia, which is still haunted by war crimes fugitives like Ratko Mladic and the unresolved future status of its ethnic Albanian majority province of Kosovo.

"Our wish to renew independence is not anti-Serbian, but rather is motivated by a need to take over responsibility for our European future," Montenegro's Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic said in a recent interview.

Most ethnic Montenegrins, roughly accounting for 43 percent of the population, prefer independence, while the 32 percent population of ethnic Serbs support the union, making the opinion of other minority ethnic groups particularly important in the vote.

The pro-independence government led by Djukanovic, taking advantage of the administrative resources and media coverage, was able to advocate the benefits of independence, such as reduced taxes and improved pension policies, ahead of the polls.

Turnout in Sunday's referendum was relatively high at 86.3 percent, according to the republic's referendum commission. The Commission's head Frantisek Lipka added on Monday that some 25,000 votes remained to be known as he had not received results from 45 of the 1,120 polling stations.

As Montenegro is poised to leave the union, Serbia's chief judge of the Constitutional Court, Slobodan Vucetic, said Serbia may declare its own independence in parliament within days of Montenegro's official separation.

Under the EU-brokered constitutional deal, Serbia will automatically inherit Serbia-Montenegro's seats in international organizations.

Source: Xinhua


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