Two weeks before financial ministers from ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea - the "10 plus 3" group - are due to meet, senior Japanese officials are promoting an East Asia Partnership Agreement (EPA). They propose that India, Australia and New Zealand co-operate with ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea, so that there would be altogether 16 signatories to an EPA. Members would enjoy low tariffs and there will be more preferential policies for investment and personnel flow within the region.

Japan is eager to act early so its influence in East Asian economic affairs does not weaken. This anxiety comes from outside pressures. The East Asian Summit at the end of 2005 was a turning point �C great changes have taken place in East Asia. The US has increased its activities in the region and is talking to ASEAN about an economic, security and social partnership. Progress was also made in negotiations with South Korea and Malaysia about free trade. China and ASEAN began their cooperation early and relations have developed rapidly. China has become a link between sea Asia and land Asia. South Korea and ASEAN have reached a preliminary consensus on a free trade zone. China and South Korea's economic relationship has developed and ASEAN has been prudent in establishing a co-operative and asserting a dominant role. These developments have made Japan uneasy. It is worried that its voice in the region is not as strong as its economic position. It is especially anxious about its dominance in economic relations wth ASEAN, a position which it is losing to China.

Unlike the "10 plus 3" model which favors a free trade agreement (FTA), Japan proposes an EPA that includes India, Australia and New Zealand. With these three new members, Japan aims to contain China and South Korea and restrict ASEAN. This proposal is likely to be supported by the three new members. The EPA program includes almost all countries in the Asia-Pacific region except the US, although they plan an important pole in military and political issues.

Japanese Economics and Industry Minister, Nikai Toshihiro, proposes that the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) be used as a model for an Asian OECD which would be used as a policy readjustment organ. In these circumstances, China would be a member of the organization but the dominant country would be Japan, who would pay more for the program. It's believed that Japan's purpose is to maintain a dominant position in the in the East Asian economic order, where they can be competitive with the US.

Japan is also adding ideological content to its EPA agenda. The Japanese Foreign Minister once said that the EPA is about making friends and to do that, everyone must have a sense of equal value. Only those who have a similar sense of value will be able to gradually expand their influence in the Asia Pacific region. This has to some extent dealt with US fears that the EPA will cut off its trans-pacific free trade rim while isolating China with the relevant policies and legal system. Japan will put forward its suggested EPA at the "10 plus 3" summit of financial ministers.

At present, it's difficult for Japan to promote this idea. Historical issues and political relations make it difficult for China and South Korea to accept the idea. ASEAN countries do not want to join an economic cooperation dominated by big powers. Although Australia and New Zealand have applauded the idea of enlarging the cooperation, neither has committed to it. Australia might have the same agenda as Japan.

Asian political and security trends have undergone many changes since the Cold War. However, the Cold War mindset has not entirely disappeared. Today eastern Asia is in a period of transition. All countries are vying for a favorable position. The European experience of integration shows that co-operation must begin with the economy. Therefore the "10 plus 3" summit is very important for the region. Japan aims to have a dominant in role in East Asian economics and politics.

Only last year Japan proposed a "10 plus 6" model but it was opposed by both China and ASEAN. It is expected the result with be the same this time around, because it is not compatible with the situation in East Asia. Japan's political agenda is apparent, and that increases the concerns of East Asian countries.

The article is written by Zhu Yan from Global Times and translated by People's Daily Online