Three historic events occurred in northeast Asia in two October days: On Oct. 8th and 9th, new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited China and the Republic of Korea (ROK), On Oct. 9th, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted a nuclear test and, on the same day, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely, the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia, unanimously proposed Ban Ki-moon, the minister of foreign affairs and trade of ROK, to succeed Kofi Annan as the secretary general of the United Nations.

These historic events are most likely to prompt the setup of international relations in northeast Asia to readjust and change in a positive aspect.

The relations between China, ROK and Japan tend to relax. Abe's visit to China and ROK has basically put an end to the stalemate of political ties between the three nations, and it is very likely for the triangular relations to enter into a new period of development. Japan should take all the responsibilities for its frictions with China and ROK. During the period of Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Japan's ties with its neighbors deteriorated to the maximum. The improvement of the nation's ties with China and ROK brooks no delay and the replacement of the old political power by the new provided Japan with an ideal opportunity to reverse its passive situation. Many personages of insight in Japan have increasingly aware of the urgency of turning their nation into a major political power and, to attain the goal, it is essential to win the acknowledgment of its Asian neighbors.

Japan's prolonged stagnant economy and the sustained, rapid growth of the Chinese economy represent a major factor for both the ruling party and the opposition in Japan to nurture the sentiments of detesting and fearing China. However, the DPRK has now become the focus of attention of the Japanese ruling party and opposition as Japan has fallen out with DPRK on the latter's kidnapping issue and repeated missile launches over the Sea of Japan. And DPRK made a sudden, absurd move by conducting a nuclear test, at the time when the Japanese economy have got out of the doldrums and Japan gradually acknowledges the peaceful rise of China psychologically. With the Japanese nationals' concern and fear turning to DPRK and China's capability to contribute markedly in the settlement of Korean Peninsula nuclear Crisis, the Japanese statesmen have a bigger role to play in improving bilateral ties with China. Ban Ki-moon's assumption of the post of the UN secretary general is of major significance to the improvement of Japan's ties with China and ROK because of ROK's raised international status and in view of China's good relations with ROK.

The relations among the big nations in the northeast Asia region are heading toward the common interests and consensus with an increase in the number of coordinative factors. If the triangular relations between China, ROK and Japan go on developing in wake of Abe's visit to China and ROK, the benign growth of Sino-Japanese and ROK-Japanese ties are sure to play a positive role. Ban Ki-moon's assumption of the UN Secretary General will increase the role of ROK as a mediator, which will facilitate improving the relations between China, Japan and ROK and also the Sino-Russian ties and the relations between the United States and Japan.

The previous six-party talks on the Korean Peninsular nuclear issue had tints of pitting against one another as each party took into account its own strategic interests, and the DPRK nuclear test has changed this situation. The maintenance of peace and stability in the northeast Asia region conforms to the common interests of the relevant parties. It is the consistent stance of the Chinese government to realize non-nuclearization on the peninsula and oppose the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The position of the Russian side is identical to that of China's on the whole. If the DPRK side does stop its moves that can possibly worsen the situation, the U.S. will certainly impose still harsher trade and financial sanctions in accordance with the 7th article of the UN Charter and China will also possibly halt petroleum oil and food grain supplies to DPRK. If DPRK then has to return to the negotiation table, differences between China and Russia and between the U.S. Japan and ROK will also lessen.

The relations between Asia and elsewhere in the world will improve to some extent. Ban Ki-wen's taking up his post as the UN secretary general constitutes a major hallmark for Asia's growing importance, and his selection hinges on, to a great degree, the outcome of regional balancing. The elevation of Asia's status also guarantees his election. Asia is a region with the fast economic growth globally, and also a region with a concentration of political, economic and military contradictions with the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, the Lebanon-Israel conflict and the Iraq War all occurring in the region.

Ban Ki-moon has long engaged in the ROK's diplomatic work and is acquainted with Asia's affairs with his intrinsic concerns about them, and this is good for the settlement of various contractions in the Asia region. So his appointment will be very favorable to coordination and consultations on the affairs between Asia and other regions.

If Abe's visit to China and ROK can lead to the improved triangular ties between China, Japan and ROK gradually and the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue will objectively promote the friendly and mutual-trusty triangular relations, it will be favorable for the three nations to expand and prosper their trade, spur the establishment of the China-Japan-ROK free trade zone and quicken the pace for regional cooperation, so as to increase the international status of northeast and east Asia.

On the other side, there are also possibilities for the deterioration of situation in the region. The DPRK nuclear test itself was intended to gear to the election of Ban Ki-moon as the UN secretary general and Abe's visit to ROK. If Ban cannot achieve much on the Korean Peninsular nuclear issue at his post, if Abe follows Koizumi's footsteps to take a tough road toward the Asian neighbors, and if once again there is a deadlock or retrogression in Japan's relations with China and ROK, there might be a Japan-ROK arms race and their ensuing development of nuclear weapons and inflicted reactions of China and Russia.

With the effect of "dominoes", the situation on the Korean Peninsula will waver, the security environment in the northeast Asia region will deteriorate, and peace and security of the entire world will be seriously menaced. This is precisely an opposite "lose-lose" outcome which the relevant countries do not want to see. The dreadful reality can be prevented and avoided only with restraint and strenuous efforts to be made by the nations in northeast Asian and across the world.

By People's Daily Online