With the launch of the first round of Sino-US strategic economic dialogue and the restoration of a new round of Six-party Talks, 2006 has been a stable and cooperative year in Sino-US relations. "Stability" is currently the key word in Sino-US relations.
Sino-US relations have stabilized and moved forward, which has been reflected in the following areas:
Firstly, summit interaction has achieved notable results. Frequent interaction between the leaders of the two countries following Chinese President Hu Jintao's successful visit to the United States early in the year and culminating in US President Bush's meeting with Hu at the APEC meeting towards the end of 2006, has helped deepen understanding and friendship. This has not only laid a solid foundation for bilateral relations, but also made clear the direction bilateral relations will take on a series of specific issues.
Secondly, the two countries have opened a new platform for cooperation. Following the conclusion of Sino-US strategic dialogue and the establishment of the Joint Committee on Commerce and Trade (JCCT), leaders of the two countries initiated a new mechanism for strategic and economic dialogue. A useful supplement, the newest mechanism serves as a link between Sino-US strategic dialogue and the JCCT, plays an important role in facilitating the smooth development of economic relations and enhances strategic relations by focusing on economic issues.
Thirdly, Sino-US military exchanges have fully resumed. Examples include Rumsfeld's visit to China, Guo Boxiong's visit to the United States, the first joint maritime maneuvers and rescue exercises by the Chinese and US navies, as well as more frequent military personnel exchanges. The facts indicate that Sino-US military relations are no longer overshadowed by the aircraft collision incident and that they are more trusting and cooperative.
Finally, the two countries have cooperated more closely and effectively on important international issues, the most notable of which is the North Korean nuclear crisis.
Both China and the US have contributed to steady advances in Sino-US relations. China has remained committed to the development of constructive and cooperative relations with the United States (its outlook on Sino-US has always been strategic and long-term); the United States has been equally committed to its new active China policy, at the core of which is "responsible stakeholders". Some experts on China such as Henry Paulson have inherited and developed the active China policy, a legacy of Robert Zoellick, which has received the support of President Bush. This is an important indicator of the maturation of Sino-US relations.
However, behind the smooth development of Sino-US relations, there still many secret worries, which, if not handled carefully, may interfere with constructive and cooperative relations. Therefore both China and the US must be prepared to work hard to eliminate these concerns.
One of the most worrisome is the economic and trade disputes that have escalated in the last few years. The two sides have not yet found a way to resolve these problems. The United States has in fact been interfering more at all levels in some of China's major structural issues such as financial liberalization and its economic growth model, which has affected the smooth development of Sino-US economic and trade relations. Friction is rising over some third party issues such as relations with Sudan, Venezuela, Africa, and others. Some of the conflict is closely related to the fundamental interests of the two countries, such as energy and geo-strategic interests; some result from different judgment calls. If not handled properly, these problems might hinder the development of relations.
With the Democratic Party's victory in the US mid-term elections, the United States is redrawing its political map. The Democratic Party has harassed China endlessly about human rights and repeatedly been critical of economic and trade issues and this is likely to have a negative impact on the Bush Administration's current China policy. The new domestic political situation will undoubtedly trigger uncertainty in Sino-US relations. It must also be considered how the US's global strategies will impact the development of Sino-US relations. How to ensure the healthy development of Sino-U.S. relations will be a question for the decision-makers of both countries to answer.
The author Yuan Peng is deputy director and researcher at the Division for North and Latin American Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations