The Iowa Caucus to be held here Thursday night is the first step in selecting party candidates for the U.S. presidential election.
While the state is tiny and the voter numbers low, political analysts say Iowa matters because it can make or break a candidate's chances in the other 49 states.
"If you can't make the top three on either side in Iowa, you can't get the party nomination," Terry Branstas, a former Republican governor of Iowa told Xinhua.
In fact, since 1976, nearly every serious presidential candidate has come to Iowa and tried to win in the state. In total,Iowa has picked the eventual Democratic presidential nominee in 5 of the past 7 competitive caucuses and the eventual Republican nominee in 3 of the past 5 competitive caucuses.
Media and money played a big role in this, according to Scott Brennan, who chairs the Democrat Party In Iowa. If a candidate lags behind in the Iowa race, his or her money will dry out and media will pay a little attention to him or her, he told Xinhua.
For example, the presidential Debate scheduled after the Iowa caucus will only invite top four candidates from both parties who emerge from the Iowa race. Lower-tier candidates may try to hang on through New Hampshire primary of Jan. 8, but single-digit finishes in Iowa will spell the end for a number of candidates.
As a Republican strategist observed, "Iowa will mark the beginning of the end for other major contenders in the field, but we just aren't smart enough to figure out which ones."
"In other words, Iowa starts winnowing out people as opposed to crowning people. That happens later in New Hampshire and obviously on 'super Tuesday' on February 5," said Tom Clark, a senior political reporter in Washington.
However, many analysts said the presidential nomination race will not be over here in Iowa for either party. Washington Post writer Dan Balz said only race that could in Iowa is in the Democratic Party and only if Senator from New York Hillary Clinton wins a big victory.
Senator from Illinois Barack Obama has plenty of money to keep going, whatever the outcome. If he wins or there is any kind of a muddled finish on the Democratic side, the battle goes to New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
A victory for former Senator John Edwards from North Carolina guarantees the race continues. He has been trailing in New Hampshire and lags both Clinton and Obama in money.
For Republicans, there is no way the Republican race ends in Iowa.
If former governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney comes back to win, he will get more credit than he might have before former governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee's dramatic surge into the pre-caucus poll lead.
But Romney has now got a fight on his hands in New Hampshire against John McCain, and the GOP race is too fluid.
Huckabee has an even more difficult path, even if he wins here, because he has been lagging in New Hampshire.
"If Huckabee wins, the results will confuse the Republican nomination, rather than clarify it," said GOP strategist Terry Nelson.
Both the Democratic and Republican races could go to Feb. 5, when nearly two dozen states will hold contests. Some strategists believe the races could go beyond that, particularly the Republican campaign.
Source: Xinhua
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