Int'l study shows world in better shape than feared; but wars threaten

Global security is not in as bad a shape as some feared, because long term risks of war have been reduced, but the situation does threaten to get worse, said a study introduced on Thursday at UN headquarters in New York.

The findings were in the first Human Security Report from the Human Security Research Project (HSRP) at Simon Fraser University' s School for International Studies at Vancouver in the Canadian province of British Columbia. It was funded by Britain, Canada, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland.

Professor Andrew Mack, project director who was an advisor to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, told reporters the research showed "an extraordinary change."

Long-term trends are reducing the risks of both international and civil wars, the study showed, but recent developments suggest the world may be heading into more dangerous turf.

It pointed out four of the world's five deadliest conflicts in 2008 involved radical Islamist groups fighting against national governments, the United States and other states. The conflicts cited were in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and Somalia.

However, the level of armed conflict in Muslim countries is far lower now than it was two decades ago while support for al-Qaeda and other radical Islamist groups has declined steadily throughout the Muslim world, the study showed.

Conflicts not involving government forces more than doubled in number between 2007 and 2008 and these conflicts rarely lasted longer than a year and their death tolls were only a small fraction of those that involved a government as a warring party, the HSRP said.

The Canadian study cited U.S. Institute of Peace research arguing many of the remaining armed conflicts had become very difficult to bring to an end while the HSRP research finds conflicts have become steadily less intractable since 1970.

The report also said governments in 1989 were responsible for 75 percent of the intentional killing of civilians while in 2008 rebel groups killed 80 percent and it showed that high-intensity wars of all types declined by 78 percent between 1988 and 2008 and interstate war has become extremely rare. High intensity conflicts were those with 1,000 or more battle deaths a year.

As for the threats, the recent increase in the number and deadliness of conflicts associated with radical Islamist movements in the War on Terror is "perhaps the single most worrying trend today," Lack said.

The 25 percent increase in conflict numbers from 2003-2008 -- after a 10 year decline -- "is largely due to an increase in minor conflicts that kill very few people," he said.

A "modest increase" in battle deaths in recent years has to be seen in the overall context, the professor said, explaining the average annual battle death toll per conflict in the 1950s killed almost 10,000 people while the present figure was less then 1,000.

What really concerns him is the doubling between 2007-2008 of inter-communal and other conflicts that do not involve government forces. These conflicts "rarely last longer than a year and their death tolls are only a small fraction of those of wars that involve a government as a warring party."

Lack said since the Cold War ended more countries have become involved in actually fewer conflicts because of U.S.-led coalitions wars.

While the economic crisis had a strong impact on parts of the developing world, it did not lead to increased political violence, he said, pointing out there was actually one fewer conflict in 2009 over 2008.

"Perhaps the most reassuring finding" is the 78 percent decline in high-intensity wars.

The HSRP cited the end of colonialism, the end of the Cold War, the increase of democratic states "and a shift of elite attitudes towards warfare" for reducing the incidence of international warfare since the end of World War II.

Equally important was the long-term hike in levels of global economic inter-dependence, Lack said. "Interdependence has increased the costs of war while reducing its benefits."

The drop in civil war is attributed to different causes, he said. "Since the end of the Cold War, the UN -led upsurge of international efforts to negotiate peace agreements in ongoing conflicts and to prevent wars that have ended from starting again has been associated with a significant decline in the wars fought within states," HSRP said.

"The long term risk of civil war has been reduced by rising levels of economic development that have increased the resources governments can deploy to co-opt adversaries, redress grievances and defeat insurgencies that can't be prevented or ended by negotiation," HSRP said.

One factor that runs counter to other reasons against war, said HSRP, was the increase in the "glorification of warfare ... characteristic of some radical Islamist organizations like al- Qaeda."

Source: Xinhua