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15:33, July 24, 2009 |
When the “emerging East Asia has entered the transition from recession to recovery…” and the region “could see a V-shaped recovery, with growth dipping sharply in 2009”, China, however, “remains a major bright spot as it continued to grow at a healthy rate during the first half of the year,” the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its July issue of the "Asian Economic Monitor" (AEM), which was released on Thursday, July 23.
To cope with the current global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted in a report issued on Wednesday, July 22 that the Chinese government has taken a series of measures to spur the country's economic growth and make its due contributions in stabilizing world economy. With the passage of time, the economic restructuring in China will exert an important, widespread influence and its consumption power will be a crucial factor contributing to the world’s economic recovery.
IMF, ADB and other international financial institutions have in recent days highly affirmed China’s economic performance amid the global financial crisis. When Li Xiaochao, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (CNBS), gave the semi-annual economic report several days ago, he perhaps never expected a “chain of events” with a spontaneous raising of their forecasts for the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to China’s advantage to occur in the next few days.
On the same day the CNBS released its GDP growth statistics, J.P. Morgan noted in a latest report that world economy would possibly recover in the second half of 2009 fueled by the growing private investment and global consumption demand and that the anticipated recovery of global economy will be brought about in the second half year, and China’s economy will retain its growth momentum in the following quarters. Frank Gong, head of China Research with J.P. Morgan Chase, raised its GDP forecast to 8.4 percent from 7.8 percent for 2009, and to 9.0 percent from 8.5 percent in 2010. This represented J.P. Morgan’s another upward uplift in less than a month after it upped China’s GDP growth to 7.8 percent from 7.2 percent at the end of June.
On the same day, investment bank Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for China’s 2009 GDP growth to 9 percent from the previous 7 percent and its 2010 GDP growth forecast to 10 percent from the previous 8 percent. Five days later, on July 21, UBS Securities raised China’s 2009 and 2010 GDP forecasts to 8.2 percent and 8.5 percent respectively.
Earlier, the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HK) predicted that China’s GDP growth was likely to stay above 9.5 percent in the coming years. 8.1 percent for this year and GDP expansion will accelerate to 9.5 percent in 2010.
China’s economic growth in 2009 will top the Chinese government’s 8 percent target and stabilize demand for exports, BNP Parias said, raising its forecast: Gross domestic product will expand to 8.2 percent from a year earlier, up from a previous 7.7 percent forecast, and further to 9.5 percent from a previous forecast of 8.5 percent for 2010, the French investment bank said.
Meanwhile, Barclays Capital raised its forecast for China’s 2009 gross domestic product growth to 7.8 percent on July 19 from 7.2 percent; it forecasted a 9.6 percent growth in 2010, an increase from its previous forecast of 9 percent.
Moreover, the World Bank on June 19 raised its 2009 economy growth forecast for China from 6.5 percent to 7.2 percent due to its stimulus-driven investment boom but cautioned Thursday that it was too early to say a sustained recovery was on the way. The bank said that China’s GDP growth rate should rise slightly in 2010 to 7.7 percent.
By People’s Daily Online and contributed by PD reporter Tang Shuai as well as reporters from Xinhua News Agency, China’s sole wire service
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2009-07/24/content_304130.htm
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