China and the U.S. are likely to emerge from the global financial crisis as winners, a scholar predicted at a recent meeting.
Jin Bei, research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and director of the Institute of Industrial Economics at the CASS, made the prediction at a summit forum on tackling the global financial crisis which was held in Guangzhou.
Jin said that there are four stages in recovering from the global financial crisis. In the first stage, governments implement macroeconomic stimulus policies to stabilize macroeconomic supply and demand and curb economic decline. China has basically completed or gone through this stage, when the economy mainly relies on national macroeconomic policies to boost macroeconomic supply and demand to curb economic decline.
In the second stage, after surviving the impact of the global financial crisis, an increasing number of enterprises complete restructuring, restore and enhance compositeness, and gradually return to sound operation.
In the third stage, growth rates of some industries start to pick up and tend to stabilize, driving relevant economic sectors to gradually return to normal operations or have noticeable new growth poles.
In the fourth stage, the international market recovers and economic growth returns to its normal track. Although data from the past few months has become increasingly optimistic, no one dares say that the world will emerge from the crisis within the next one or two years.
After the global financial crisis, which countries will suffer higher losses and which countries will eventually gain an advantage or become winners? The winners are expected to be the U.S. and China. Although the U.S. got the world into trouble, it has very strong market economy and market competition systems. Though the U.S. has enterprises, such as the three major automakers, that seriously lack flexibility in terms of enterprise systems, the majority of U.S. enterprises has relatively flexible enterprise systems, which are at least far more flexible than their European counterparts. China, another winner, has a big opportunity to succeed if it can handle the crisis properly.
By People's Daily Online
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