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Promoting Syrian regime change lacks strategic foresight

(People's Daily Online)

16:02, June 12, 2012

The tension in Syria is growing. Subsequent to the Houla killings, another massacre took place recently at the Kabir farm in Syria's Hama province, undoubtedly providing the West with a new excuse for further interference.

Behind the Western firm intention of overthrowing the Bashar regime is the narrow-minded thinking. The West jumps at every opportunity to overthrow the Syrian regime that refuses to follow its orders. Another motivation is the geopolitical interests. Syria is the main ally of Iran in West Asia. If the Syrian regime changes its side, it will smooth the way for the West to “punish” Iran.

Obviously, the Western nations have considered it more beneficial to overturn the current Syrian regime than to retain it. This is, however, not the case. In spite of its apparent radical objection to the West, the current regime of Syria has been put itself on the defensive in recent years due to its weak powers, posing only relatively limited threats to the West. Rather, the political upheaval in the country is more threatening.

First, the downfall of the current Syrian regime will seriously destroy the power balance in the region.

Second, overthrowing the secular regime is likely to activate the extremist and terrorist forces.

Syria is located at the sensitive joint of two sub-regions of Maghreb and the Gulf. Provided the country's political situation goes out of control, it is likely to become another target country for terrorists like Iraq. Moreover, the terrorist forces might well use Syria as a base to spread to North Africa and the Gulf, allowing terrorism scattering across West Asia and North Africa to act in concert.

The West has failed to see the negative effects associated with the downfall of the Bashar regime as clearly as it does the beneficial aspect. This may keep it trip twice over the same block, and indicates the strategic shortsightedness of the current Western leaders.

The West is ambitious about the Syrian issue at present, but actually they have been blinded by its expanding hegemonic desire to promote regime changes: Libya is followed with Syria. And subsequent to the Syrian collapse, they will target Iran. The unlimited greed and shortsightedness will only widen the gap between its ability and intention, and between its means and objectives.

Read the Chinese version: 在叙搞政权更替是战略短视
, source: People's Daily Overseas Edition , author: Tian Wenlin

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