Podcast: Is China's economic data skeptical?

Moody's senior sovereign analyst believes China's official data is credible.

People's Daily Online Business Podcast by Li Zhenyu
The latest Chinese official data shows China's economy is picking up, with exports and imports rebounding with a speed above expectations in July.

Exports rose 5.1 percent in July, compared to a Reuters forecast of a 3 percent rise, and much better than the 3.1 percent fall in June.

Meanwhile, imports surged 10.9 percent, versus expectations of a 2.1 percent rise and following the 0.7 percent drop in June.

The country's surging trade growth is now in the spotlight.

The sharp trade data rebound for July has, in the West, generated a debate over the reliability of China's official data.

Thomas Byrne, senior vice president at Moody's, one of the world's three major credit rating agencies, recently shared with me about his takes on this issue.

"We think China's official data is credible enough to perform for analytical purposes. Yes. We have our credit assessment," Byrne, who is also a senior sovereign analyst, told me.

"Certainly China provides enough data so that we can do with confidence with our credit assessment. And as we know, China is always improving its data, which is good."

The senior sovereign analyst believes that there is credence to China's official data and classifies it in the middle category.

"The IMF has three classifications, for the quality, for the scope, and the robustness of financial and economic data. And China is in the middle category, it's for the General Data Dissemination Standards," said Byrne.

"The upper category is the Special Data Dissemination Standards. Most mature economies are in that category. And there are countries that their provision of data is so poor, it's not even in the General Data Dissemination Standards. Most countries are in the General Data Dissemination Standards."

If you are a China doubter, next time you look at China's economic figures, will you still be as skeptical as before?

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