China's economy has entered a relatively tranquil terrace, as most economists prelude no new tightening measures from the central authorities till the year end, barring any ferocious policy changes in the developed economies which remain today seriously subdued after a blockbuster crisis.
Considering the ever-elevating prices and inflationary pressure, the central bank could still move to raise the interest rates by quarter a percentage points. Another additional move to gear up banks' required reserve ratio -- now at a record high of 21.5 percent for all the heavyweight lenders -- is also on the table.
The world's second largest economy has softly landed – widely expected to expand by about 9.5 percent in 2011, the highest among the world's major economies. The great landing on a terrace owes to Beijing's invisible hand of fiscal, monetary and administrative management – nicknamed as"macro control"here -- that has ensured Asia's largest economy does not run off course.
However, it's not time to pad the shoulders and celebrate. Like running river rapids, the first moments in the quiet upstream waters offer little hint of the vortex ahead. So, the decision-makers in Beijing must always stay in their positions and keep vigilant.
Though price rises in August might not reach 6.5 percent recorded for July, thanks to a string of government tightening measures since the second half of 2010, inflation could surge again and possibly run out of control as factors totally unexpected emerge and complicate issues. Premier Wen Jiabao has time and again requested his cabinet officials put clobbering inflation as the very top of all central government work, and he is rightly so.
The developed countries' stubborn while strenuous pursuit of excess loose fiscal and monetary policies – to ride them of capital crunch and a deflationary cycle -- demands the emerging economies, including China's, take the symmetrical policy of extraordinary tightening to hedge against. Otherwise, the emerging countries are likely to be inundated by torrential money inflows from where the capital is incepted.
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