News Opinions China Military Foreign Affairs Learn Chinese China Study Forum

People's Daily Online>>Opinion

It is the China naysayers who are doomed to fail

(Global Times)

15:05, January 04, 2012

Gordon Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China (2001), updated his prediction last week. In an article published in Foreign Policy, Chang admitted his prediction of the CPC's fall by 2011 was wrong, but insisted he was "only off by a year." Now he invites people to bet on the coming collapse of China in 2012.

The astounding prediction apparently brought instant fame for Chang a decade ago.

In 2001, the book became an overnight sensation amid various doomsday predictions of China's future. Before that he was barely known. Later he maintained his media exposure by propagandizing his theory via interviews and speech tours in the US, Japan and China's Taiwan. Obviously his prediction has some audiences in the world.

China naysayers have been consistently wrong over the past decade. The fact that Chang has never been to the Chinese mainland since 2002 has undermined his status as a "China expert."

China's increasing openingup enables foreigners to feel the nation's pulse for themselves. This is also what makes Chang's prejudice unconvincing. When articles published by mainstream Western media outlets like the Guardian and Time start to argue that China is too big to fail, the space for China naysayers like Chang has been squeezed.

It's amusing to read netizens' comments below Chang's article. One netizen mocked Chang by quoting Harold Camping's revised prediction that the world would end on Oct 21, 2011, not May 21. Another bantered of all the problems Chang listed: "Is Gordon describing China or the US?" Another netizen pointed out: "You obviously haven't spent much time in China."

Today the market for ideological grandstanding has shrunk and competition between powers relies on governments' capability to deal with domestic problems amid global uncertainties. Over the past couple of years, China has come to be seen as the most robust country and most reliable economic engine in the world's chilly economic downturn.

Warnings and criticism can push the country to make greater progress and position itself better in world dynamics, but illintended predictions carry little weight. The Chinese government has strong crisis awareness. Its attitude and speed in solving problems arising from rapid social change is probably unfamiliar to the likes of Chang.

It's good that Chang has narrowed the time span for his revised prediction. We'll see the collapse of his new theory soon.

Email|Print|Comments

（Editor：梁军）

Leave your comment25 comments

Chinhomiah at 2012-01-14116.197.245.*: The leaders of America have too long been paying attention to the wishful predictions of Gordon Chang that they forgot to monitor the coming collapse of the excessive capitalism that they are accustomed, nay addicted, to. The Occupy Wall Street Movment will probably morph into something of a bigger headache come spring of this year. Not only are there plans to repeat the occupation of the downtown districts of major American cities, but also the houses whose tenants have been evicted for failing to pay their mortgages. People living outside the US are kind of curious to know what plans do the American police have up their sleeves when normal police methods like hadcuffs and cattle prods prove insufficient in containing the unrest. Are they going to involve other security forces, like having marines rapel down black hawk helicopters and shooting at the protestors. Should this happen, the American media will no doubt find this opportunity to tell the whole world too irresistable, assuming of course that a blackout on news is not imposed by the US government. I doubt that whatever happens to China's economy this year is going to be as exciting as the coming upheaval in America. The fact of the matter is that considering the recentness of China's development, whatever setbacks the Chinese economy may experience will only be temporary, given the size of the country and the large areas that still remain underdeveloped. Such market corrections will prove healthy for they will drive China's economy even higher, one that eventually surpasses the US.
Chinhomiah at 2012-01-14116.197.245.*: The leaders of America have too long been paying attention to the wishful predictions of Gordon Chang that they forgot to monitor the coming collapse of the excessive capitalism that they are accustomed, nay addicted, to. The Occupy Wall Street Movment will probably morph into something of a bigger headache come spring of this year. Not only are there plans to repeat the occupation of the downtown districts of major American cities, but also the houses whose tenants have been evicted for failing to pay their mortgages. People living outside the US are kind of curious to know what plans do the American police have up their sleeves when normal police methods like hadcuffs and cattle prods prove insufficient in containing the unrest. Are they going to involve other security forces, like having marines rapel down black hawk helicopters and shooting at the protestors. Should this happen, the American media will no doubt find this opportunity to tell the whole world too irresistable, assuming of course that a blackout on news is not imposed by the US government. I doubt that whatever happens to China's economy this year is going to be as exciting as the coming upheaval in America. The fact of the matter is that considering the recentness of China's development, whatever setbacks the Chinese economy may experience will only be temporary, given the size of the country and the large areas that still remain underdeveloped. Such market corrections will prove healthy for they will drive China's economy even higher, one that eventually surpasses the US.
PD User at 2012-01-13175.39.50.*: I think your brains have not been refreshed by a shower of intelligence for a long, long time. First you must remove your head from your underpants and stop speaking through UranusI doubt that you are an Australian. I am very happy for that! How many Chinese Officials and privileged scribble in this page?
end at 2012-01-10120.165.15.*: this guy is like so many Americans are already brainwashed by their government
Globalist at 2012-01-09117.102.104.*: We should ignore a crackpot like Gordon Chang. Paying any attention to this self-serving ignoramus is to increase his near 0 credibility. Ignore him and soon CIA and CNN will terminate his job.