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Global Online Exports Expected to Soar, Says New Study
Global online exports are expected to surge to US$1.4 trillion in 2004, thanks to the Internet which presents a wealth of opportunities to streamline international trade, according to a report released Tuesday in Los Angels.
Cross-border e-marketplace trade will surpass 400 billion dollars, but will not flow equally among nations, resulting in an emerging split between countries that actively export and import using the Net and those that do not, said Forrester Research, a US independent Internet research firm.
For the study, Forrester interviewed 50 e-marketplaces that have plans to recruit international participants. US e-marketplaces expect 44 percent of their volume to come from abroad by 2002. In addition to this primary research, Forrester modeled the e-commerce adoption in more than 18,000 trade pairing among 48 countries.
"While B2B e-commerce is accelerating throughout the United States, most businesses don't operate in domestic-only supply chains," Forrester said. "Online trade will expand globally as firms use the Net to attack inefficiencies in today's international trade practices."
The research firm projected that Western Europe will lead all regions with 692 billion dollars in global online exports in 2004, driven by Germany's 144 billion dollars in online cross-border sales. In the same time frame, North America will see more than 23 percent of its exports move online, led by the US with 211 billion dollars in cross-border e-commerce. Asia-Pacific, fueled by 57 billion dollars in Japanese online exports, will reach 219 billion dollars in four years.
According to Forrester, global e-marketpalce trade will reach 408 billion dollars in 2004. Petrochemical export will propel Western Europe to 215 billion dollars. Denmark and Norway will lead the region, with each sending more than 10 percent of their international sales via these venues. While sales through e-marketplaces within Canada and the US will reach US$1.5 trillion in 2004, only 7 percent of these online sales will flow across borders. Asia-Pacific exports through online markets will reach 50 billion dollars, driven by sales to North American firms.
As online cross-border sales grow to US$1.4 trillion over the next four years, Forrester said, a split among countries will emerge, based on their adoption of the Net for imports and exports, Forrester said. Nineteen countries will dominate online international trade. Led by Canada, Norway and Denmark, these countries will represent more than 80 percent of online imports and exports.
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