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Views about future monetary policy in China

(People's Daily Online)    09:07, October 23, 2014
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According to the latest report released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, increased 12.9 percent year on year to 120.21 trillion yuan at the end of September, accelerating slightly from a growth of 12.8 percent seen in August.

According to the central bank data, released on Thursday, for the first nine months Chinese banks lent a total of 7.68 trillion yuan in renminbi and $61.5 billion in foreign currencies. China's new yuan-denominated lending posted stronger than expected growth, expanding 154.7 billion yuan from August to reach 857.2 billion yuan ($139.6 billion) in September.

Compared with a year ago, new yuan loans were 70.2 billion yuan higher and marked the highest monthly reading in three months, according to the statement.

However, opinions of scholars and experts differ in their views on the matter.

Lian Ping, chief economist with the Bank of Communications Co, said: "Previous policies have taken effect and maintained the stability of financial markets and economic operations. China will continue to follow a prudent monetary policy and give priority to fine-tuning measures."

While Industrial securities holds the view that there will be a loosening monetary policy in China, China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) thinks that the government should continue current policy.

The CICC also mentioned that it takes some time for housing policy to have a positive effect on mortgage loans; medium to long-term loans in the household sector showed slight downturn in September.

Furthermore, CICC mentioned that shadow banking has been effectively restricted.

The research group from Minsheng Securities said that the worst period in 2014 has passed. Firstly, the economy in China is beginning to show stable growth. Secondly, according to high frequency data, real estate sales will increase again in the future.

The article is edited and translated from《专家评9月金融数据略超预期 货币政策走向存分歧》, source: People's Daily Online, author: Wei Qian

(Editor:Yuan Can、Liang Jun)
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