The Choice of China's Diplomatic Strategy

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, March 19, 2003

The Choice of China's Diplomatic Strategy

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The US 1997 "four-year defense examination report" set forth the period of strategic opportunity, believing that no genuine competitor with the United States would appear in the first 15 years of the 21st century, even a rival emerging in the form of alliance would hardly pose challenge to US hegemony.

Judged from an analysis of US foreign strategy, the United States is now "pretending to advance along one path while secretly going along another", this means it is launching an anti-terrorism struggle in name while actually making a layout of hegemonic strategy. Therefore, it is very important to have the art of holding a proper distance and propriety in the relationship between China and the United States.

Sino-US relationship is not isolated, If we maintain good relations with other big countries, the safeguard of Sino-US relations will become relatively easy. Under the new situation, Sino-US relationship can win greater area of cooperation, in the long run, the space for its development will not extend indefinitely.

A look at China's historical process since the 20th century shows that there was little opportunity for China's development, opportunities, even if they did exist, were not fully seized. China suffered a lot in World War I and World War II, these were followed by the Liberation War, and then by local wars in China's neighboring areas, such as the Korean War and the Vietnam War. China could not escape civil wars and external wars by sheer luck. This, plus mistakes in domestic economic construction, caused China to miss good opportunities for development. China really stepped on to the road of developing and expanding itself only after it initiated the reform and opening up policy in 1978.

The report to the 16th CPC National Congress clearly states that the first 20 years of the 21st century are an important period of strategic opportunity China must firmly get hold and in which it can score great achievements. This conclusion meets the needs of China's development strategy, and it is the result of its profound understanding of the characteristics of the international situation, especially the world situation since the "September 11" incident. This strategic opportunity can be understood mainly from the following aspects.

Having experienced restructuring and readjustment after the Cold War, big-power relations have by and large been positioned, presenting a good, interacting trend

This is expressed in the following aspects:

1. Big countries have reached consensus in many ways on such global questions as terrorism, cross-country crimes, and environmental pollution. The degree of cooperation and interdependence has been deepened;

2. The policies of some major countries tend to become internally restrained, instead, they are devoted to development and construction and seek stability and peace in the international environment;

3. China's ties with principal big countries of the world are stable and good. The "9.11" incident has shifted the American strategic focus, China is no longer regarded as clear, current threat. China has become a cooperative force in US counter-terrorism. A mutually beneficial cooperative relationship has been formed between China and the United States over some security questions, such as combating terrorism, and non-proliferation of nuclear power, at the same time, this curbs US adverse influence on China over the Taiwan issue. The United States has promised for the first time that it does not support Taiwan independence, the anti-terrorism struggle has given the United States no time to attend to the East. This makes it possible to bring the Taiwan issue under more effective control and the possibility for a peaceful solution of this issue has increased; China-Russia relationship is moving toward maturity, as is concretely expressed in the fact that both sides can understand and respect each other's independent foreign policies and can treat bilateral relations from the perspective of the needs for long-range development. China and European countries face broader prospects for development, and there are no conflicts of strategic interests between China and Europe, and the two sides do not look upon each other as potential rivals, at the same times, China and some big European countries have a point of agreement on cooperation over the question of opposing unilateral hegemony.

US strategic adjustment has provided China with a very rare opportunity for development. The strategic goal of the United States after the Cold War was to consolidate and strengthen its leading position, as long as its existing position can be guaranteed, the United States will not fundamentally change its security strategy, nor will it adopt a high-handed policy toward big countries in the near future. As long as the United States refrain from interfering with China's development process and intervene in China's internal affairs, China will, proceeding from the general interests of Sino-US relationship, maintain the stability of Sino-US relationship and conduct cooperation with the United States in more fields as far as possible. Viewed from this angle, there exists the possibility of extending the period of China's opportunities.

Here is a problem worth attention, that is US concept of strategic interstitial period. In its 1997 "Four-year Defense Examination Report", the United States put forward the period of strategic opportunity, believing that no genuine competitor with the United States will possibly appear in the first 15 years of the 21st century, even if rivals emerging in the form of alliance will hardly pose challenge to US hegemony. The United States is set to lay a solid foundation for deepening and consolidating its hegemony during this period. Obviously, the "9.11" terrorist attacks have not fundamentally changed the layout of US hegemonic strategy. But the anti-terrorist struggle has intensified US security strategy and enlarged its defense scope. In view of the fact that US military, diplomatic, commercial and various other targets are subjected to threat, the United States needs to use huge amounts of human, material and financial resources to prevent and attack various types of terrorist activities worldwide. This, to a certain extent, will definitely affect US original global strategic dispositions and objectively prolong US strategic interstitial period. China sets its objective of building a well-off society in 2020, while US strategic interstitial period is up to 2015, but as things stand today, this time limit will probably be extended. This represents a deep-seated factor favorable to China's development.

China's political stability and sustained economic development provide a good internal and external environment for an economic leap in the strategic opportunity period

China's economy is advancing at an average annual growth rate of 7 percent. This also provides a sure guarantee for neighboring countries' economic prosperity and stability and has promoted the momentum of these countries' cooperation with China. Setting forth of this strategic opportunity period is a clear signal to the international community, it indicates that China will continue to concentrate on implementing the development strategy and continue to devote itself to constructing an internal and external environment conducive to development, strengthening cooperation and collaboration with various countries around the world, making itself an example of not going in for confrontation, reducing conflicts and the eruption of crisis to the maximum.

True, strategic opportunity does not come out of void, on the one hand, it is brought about by objective factors, on the other hand, it is the result of China's long-term implementation of an independent foreign policy of peace. Opportunity is not tantamount to development, an opportunity may lose at any time after having got it if things are not handled properly. From the perspective of urgency, a strategic opportunity can be described as seeking development through crevice. So we must lose no time in firmly and unswervingly advancing toward our goal of achieving sustained development.

Task is heavy and the road ahead is long for China's diplomatic work in the strategic period, we should base ourselves on how to safeguard, consolidate and prolong the strategic opportunity period which is very valuable for China's development. In order to defend and protect our strategic opportunity period, we should properly handle the following relations:

I. Opposing hegemony and strengthening cooperation with big countries. Sino-US relationship remains one of paramount importance in the period of strategic opportunity, but to a certain degree, maintaining and stabilizing Sino-US ties calls for efforts from various quarters. It probably needs stable relations with other big countries to promote or boost Sino-US ties, so we need to contribute to and accomplish something in developing ties with other countries. In respect to developing relations with Western countries, it is extremely important to renew our understanding and appraisal of Western countries' modern economic system and civilization, this, to a certain extent, determines the degree to which we develop ties with Western countries. Here it does not mean negating discrepancies and differences, but rather emphasizes more understanding and respect. Sino-US relationship is not isolated, if we maintain good relations with other big countries, it will be relatively easy to maintain Sino-US ties. Under the new situation, it is possible to win bigger area of cooperation for Sino-US relationship, in the long run, the space for its development will not be extended indefinitely. Judged from an analysis of US external strategy, the United States is now "pretending to advance along one path while secretly going along another". It launches an anti-terrorism struggle in name while actually making a layout for its hegemonic strategy. Therefore, it is very important for us to have the art of keeping a proper distance and propriety in the relationship between China and the United States.

II. We should not place unduly high expectations of the economic interdependence between China and the United States. There is an area of misunderstanding which makes it seem that China's vast market has a very big holding force to US policies, and which holds that as long as we emphasize economic cooperation and exchange, we can sleep in peace. In fact, the economic interdependence between China and the United States is not reciprocal, China has a greater demand for the American market, capital and technology. Before the emergence of the Chinese market, US economic strength had long been the number one in the world. The United States has always put security in the first place, China must reach more consensus with the United States in political and security fields, only then can Sino-US relationship be stabilized.

III. National sentiment and big-power sense. China is a big country, but it is a weak big country, we have lost a lot of time for construction and development. China still has to go a long way before it can become a developed country, it should engage itself in construction in a down-to-earth manner in order to fulfill the aspiration for national rejuvenation, instead of vying with other countries in everything. The big power sense we should give expression to is not the sensitive self-respect, still less a hegemonic concept, but rather is the concept of peace. Although China is exerting an active and progressive influence on the international community, it is not a large diplomatic and political power, but is only a developing country seeking economic recovery. This is our clearly defined position. Our big-country sense is to make clear our own responsibilities and duties and make appropriate contributions. In international affairs, we do not cut a smart figure, nor put ourselves in the limelight, and we avoid blind comparison and competition. This requires us to put forward a new concept that fits us well. The "one country, two systems" principle has effectively solved some problems left over from history, on some knotty problem, we should have new ideas identical with development strategy. This should not be understood as our weakness, but rather it is an expression of our responsibility for China's long-term development and stability, and for history and future.

Properly handling the relations between the defense of peace and development

When the volatility of Taiwan is taken into account, China does need to make some military preparations, the modernization of national defense is all the more indispensable, but we must pay attention to the principle of appropriation, the building and structure of China's national defense should be defensive, we should be doubly cautious when developing ocean-going force including aircraft carriers to avoid giving others a handle. We emphasize the sense of responsibility and image on the question of arms control and non-proliferation. Strategic opportunity is not only an economic concept, but also a political concept. Since it is strategic opportunity, it requires us to accomplish something not only economically, but also politically. The key to this lies in that it requires us to make clear what we should do and what we should not do, but this does not mean accomplishing nothing.

Don't regard China's integration of itself into the international system and its initiative to develop cooperation with Western countries as seeking recognition from the West. In fact, this is a course of mutual recognition. The process of our contact with the West is a process of trying to let them understand China, as well as a process of influencing them to some extent. China not only needs to learn to convert enemies into friends, but also needs to deepen and consolidate the already existing partnerships.

Finally, within the period of strategy, we should be adequately prepared against the possibility of the transformation and proliferation of potential crises. We should have perspective understanding of the trend of US anti-terrorist war. We should have full evaluation of the phased anti-terrorist struggle and big-power strategy of seeking long-term hegemony.

By People's Daily Online

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