Golden Sachs' prophesy: China's economy expected to be ahead of US in 2039

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, December 24, 2003

Golden Sachs' prophesy: China's economy expected to be ahead of US in 2039

Golden Sachs unveiled its yearend forecast. It predicted that China's economy would stand a good chance of catching up and outrunning the US economy in 2039 and the next fifty years would see remarkable changes in the world economic system in which China, Russia, India, and Brazil would be powers even stronger than expected.

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One of the world leading investment banks Golden Sachs unveiled its yearend forecast. It predicted that China's economy would stand a good chance of catching up and outrunning the US economy in 2039 and the next fifty years would see remarkable changes in the world economic system in which China, Russia, India, and Brazil would be powers even stronger than expected.

Analysts from Golden Sachs foretold in the report that China would be quite likely to catch up and surpass Germany in the coming four years, leave Japan behind by 2015 and overrun US by 2039 in terms of economic scale.

Having compared the vision of the economies of China, Russia, India, and Brazil in the forthcoming 50 years with today's six most prominent economic powers, namely US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Britain, said the analysts who prepared the report, the conclusion is that the US and Japan would be hopefully the only two out of the six powers to remain in the world's economic all-star list.

Golden Sachs also holds that the value of Renminbi may double in ten years on condition that the US dollar appreciates by 2.5 percent every year and China keeps its growth momentum on one hand and floats the exchange rate of the people's currency on the other.

However, Golden Sachs also pointed out that although China, Russia, India and Brazil would probably elbow their way into the world's top 10 economic powers by 2050, the number one economy (in terms of GDP) at that time may not be the most affluent one (in terms of income per capita).

The Golden Sachs' report has even worked out a timetable. India, it declared, may outshine all other economies in the world except US and China in the next 30 years while Russia may go ahead of the US by 2050.

(An article from News Morning and translated by PD Online)

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